Only about 10% of drugs get through all the clinical stages.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
The claim is a rough figure ("about 10%") for the share of drug candidates that make it through every stage of clinical trials to approval. True: authoritative estimates available as of April 2026 (e.g. BIO/Informa/QLS clinical development success rate studies, Wong et al. 2019, other peer-reviewed analyses) put the likelihood of approval from Phase I at roughly 7–14%. Mostly true: the main estimates fall a little outside that band (e.g. 5–7% or 14–20%), or roughly 10% holds only for some definitions of the starting point or for some therapeutic areas while the overall picture is still close to 10%. Mixed: the credible estimates split, with major sources near 10% and others far away (e.g. above 20%). Mostly false: the figure only holds for a narrow subset, or comes from a different measure (e.g. preclinical-to-approval) presented as the clinical-stage rate, while the clinical-stage rate is substantially different. False: authoritative sources consistently put the clinical-stage success rate well away from 10% (e.g. above 25% or below 3%).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters Biostatistics (Oxford Academic) · 1 April 2019
“We find that 13.8% of all drug development programs eventually lead to approval”
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E2 Rate of drug approvals dips down: Nature Study BioSpectrum Asia
“The overall success rate from Phase I to FDA approval is nearly 10 percent.”
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E3 Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters Biostatistics (Oxford Academic) · 1 April 2019
“are much higher than the 1% to 3% that is colloquially seen as it is conditioned on the drug development program entering Phase 1.”
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E4 Clinical Development Success Rates and Contributing Factors 2011-2020 | BIO Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO)
“BIO, Informa Pharma Intelligence, and QLS Advisors have released a new report on clinical development success rates covering 2011-2020.”
Reasoning
A BioSpectrum Asia report on a Nature study puts the overall success rate from Phase I to FDA approval at "nearly 10 percent" (E2). Wong et al. 2019 in Biostatistics finds that 13.8% of all drug development programs eventually lead to approval (E1). Both figures fall within the 7–14% band that the criteria set for "true". E3 adds that the commonly cited 1–3% figure measures something different from the clinical-stage rate.
Cite this claim
Demis Hassabis, “Only about 10% of drugs get through all the clinical stages.” (said 10 April 2026). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_76d4f0f05bf6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_76d4f0f05bf6
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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