On TradeSports around April 2006, the implied probability of a US or Israeli attack on Iran before March 2007 was about 25 percent.

True: TradeSports contract prices around 10 April 2006 for a US or Israeli air strike on Iran before March 2007 imply a probability of about 25% (roughly 22–28%). Mostly true: the price was within about 20–30%, or the contract wording or expiry date differs slightly from the claim. Mixed: the relevant contracts show conflicting prices, some around 25% and others well away from it. Mostly false: the figure was well away from 25% (for example 15–19% or 31–40%), or it relates to a materially different contract. False: the price was far from 25%, or no such contract existed on TradeSports at that time.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 A mini-interview with Dr. Robert Hanson, crowd prediction data expert Steve Petersen, Reporter's Notebook (Assignment Zero, hosted at mason.gmu.edu) · 4 April 2007

   “Apparently, Tradesports users were less concerned about potential military action against Iran since they collectively wagered a 20.5% chance that an air strike would occur by the end of this year.”

E1 reports a 20.5% TradeSports price for an air strike on Iran "by the end of this year", which is a different contract from the one the claim names (before March 2007). E1's date is also ambiguous: it is listed as 2007-04-04, but the URL suggests April 2006. The evidence doesn't show what the before-March-2007 contract was trading at around 10 April 2006. A lower price for an earlier deadline would fit a roughly 25% figure but doesn't confirm it.