The 2022 swaptions have more than tripled in value from their original cost.

Judge against Pershing Square Holdings' own reporting of its interest-rate swaption ("2022 swaptions") hedge at the date of the statement in 2022. True: PSH's reports or letters around that date give a market value of these swaptions above 3 times their original premium cost (or gains implying that). Mostly true: the value was at or very close to 3 times cost (about 2.8–3.0x) at the stated date, or exceeded 3x at a slightly different reporting date the statement plausibly refers to. Mostly false: the swaptions had gained substantially, but clearly less than tripled (for example 1.5–2.7x). False: the swaptions were worth around or below cost, or no such position existed. Later changes in value after the statement do not count.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Ackman Made $2 Billion This Year Betting on Rising Rates Institutional Investor · 17 November 2022

   “Pershing Square then spent $240 million on a third bet on rising rates; Ackman said that one is now worth $446 million.”

2. E2 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Public Class USD Accum.Shs (PSHZF) Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript - November 17, 2022 roic.ai · 17 November 2022 Own record

   “We have got about a $240 million investment in interest rate swaptions that are today worth about $446 million.”

3. E3 Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. Releases Letter to Investors | Pershing Square Holdings Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 26 January 2022 Own record

   “We retained interest rate swaptions that are currently out-of-the-money, and also purchased some additional longer-dated, out-of-the-money swaptions.”

4. E4 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Public Class USD Accum.Shs (PSHZF) Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript - November 17, 2022 roic.ai (third-party transcript host) · 17 November 2022 Own record

   “We have got about a $240 million investment in interest rate swaptions that are today worth about $446 million.”

5. E5 Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. Releases Letter to Investors | Pershing Square Holdings Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. (press release page) · 26 January 2022 Own record

   “We retained interest rate swaptions that are currently out-of-the-money, and also purchased some additional longer-dated, out-of-the-money swaptions.”

6. E6 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Public Class USD Accum.Shs (PSHZF) Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call Transcript - November 17, 2022 roic.ai (third-party transcript host) · 17 November 2022 Own record

   “We bought interest rate swaption for about $180 million that by Q1 of this year we are worth $1.450 billion.”

7. E7 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. 2021 Annual Report Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · March 2022 Own record

   “has since re-established a similar asymmetric interest rate swaption position to protect the portfolio going forward.”

8. E8 PSCM Annual Investor Presentation Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. · 11 February 2022 Own record

   “(3) Includes initial hedges purchased in late 2020 and early 2021 and excludes recent purchases in 2022.”

The only cost-and-value figures are from 17 November 2022. Then, a roughly $240M swaption investment was described as worth about $446M (E1, E2, E4), about 1.9x cost. The evidence does not give the date of the 'more than tripled' statement, and swaption values changed over 2022, so the November figures may not reflect the value at that date. It is also unclear whether the 'third bet' in E1 is exactly the '2022 swaptions' position. Earlier Pershing Square records give no value for the 2022 purchases; the February presentation explicitly excludes them (E3, E10, E11).