Technology-powered productivity growth is the main driver of economic growth, wage growth, and the creation of new industries and jobs.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judged against the economic literature as of 2023-10-16. True: mainstream economics (growth accounting, Solow residual / total factor productivity research) broadly supports technology-driven productivity growth as the primary long-run driver of economic growth and real wage growth, and of the creation of new industries and jobs. Mostly true: the consensus supports productivity as the main long-run driver of growth and wages, but the claim that it is the main driver of new jobs is more contested or only partly supported. Mixed: the literature supports some parts and substantially disputes others, for example by showing wages decoupled from productivity. Mostly false: the claim overstates a real relationship, with the evidence showing other factors as primary. False: the evidence shows productivity growth is not a main driver of growth or wages.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Decoupling of wages from productivity: what implications for public policies?: OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2018 Issue 2 OECD · 7 December 2018
“a special chapter on the implications for public policy of the decoupling of wages from productivity”
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E2 The fear of technology-driven unemployment and its empirical base VoxEU (CEPR) · 10 June 2022
“this column suggests that the empirical support for the labour-creating effects of technological change dominates that for labour-replacement.”
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E3 The fear of technology-driven unemployment and its empirical base VoxEU (CEPR) · 10 June 2022
“Nonetheless, the net employment effects observed in these studies are rather negative than positive.”
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E4 The fear of technology-driven unemployment and its empirical base VoxEU (CEPR) · 10 June 2022
“Moreover, new technologies can raise the marginal product of labour and capital, resulting in both higher wages and returns to capital.”
Reasoning
E2 and E4 give some support for the claim's parts about jobs and wages. E1 only names an OECD chapter on wages decoupling from productivity and gives no findings, and E3 refers to unspecified studies without linking them to productivity growth. No item tests whether productivity growth is the main driver of economic growth, so the evidence does not settle the claim under the criteria.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “Technology-powered productivity growth is the main driver of economic growth, wage growth, and the creation of new industries and jobs.” (said 16 October 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_714850c991c2, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_714850c991c2
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Marc Andreessen
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Mixed
“And these people are completely giving up the entire moral foundation of the system that’s been built for them, which by the way, is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.”
The system that has been built for these people is paid for virtually 100% by taxpayer money.
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Mostly true
“I mean, look, we’re adding a trillion dollars to the national debt every 100 days right now, and it’s now passing the size of the Defense Department budget and it’s compounding”
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Mixed
“Technological innovation in a market system is inherently philanthropic, by a 50:1 ratio.”
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Mostly false
“There are only three sources of growth: population growth, natural resource utilization, and technology.”
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Mostly true
“We believe markets lift people out of poverty – in fact, markets are by far the most effective way to lift vast numbers of people out of poverty, and always have been.”
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