ClaimsPeter Thiel

“That would be like the Chinese man who tried to launch a rocket into space in the 11th century.”

Peter Thiel, class lecturer 15 June 2012 Peter Thiel's CS183: Startup - Class 19 Notes Essay (Stagnation or Singularity?) (Blake Masters Tumblr) archived copy

Factual Technology

A Chinese man tried to launch a rocket into space in the 11th century.

Mostly false False in substance, right in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge by historical scholarship on early Chinese rocketry and the Wan Hu story. True: credible historical sources record that a Chinese man in the 11th century (1001–1100) tried to fly or launch himself skyward or into space using rockets. Mostly true: such an attempt is historically documented, but it falls within about a century of the 11th, or it is described as aimed at the sky and not at 'space' as such. Mixed: the story is a recognised tradition, but its dating and historicity are seriously disputed, with substantial sources on both sides. Mostly false: the story exists only as an unverified legend, or the traditional dating is several centuries away from the 11th century, so the claim states a legend as fact or misdates it. False: no such story or attempt exists in any historical or legendary tradition.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Wan Hu Wikipedia (English) · 1 October 2003 Own record

    “While the legend is well-known, there is no direct evidence surviving to substantiate it.”
  2. E2 Wan Hu Wikipedia (English) · 1 October 2003 Own record

    “He is said to have died in 1390.”
  3. E3 Wan Hu Wikipedia (English) · 1 October 2003 Own record

    “However, Li Chengzhi has argued for the story's plausibility, saying that it may have come from oral transmission by European missionaries who came to China during the late Ming and Qing dynasties, or based on records in an ancient Chinese document that has been subsequently lost.”
  4. E4 History of rockets Wikipedia (English) · 30 December 2008 Own record

    “The dating of the invention of the first gunpowder rocket, otherwise known as the gunpowder-propelled fire arrow, is disputed. The History of Song attributes the invention to two different people at different times: Feng Zhisheng in 969 and Tang Fu in 1000.”

Reasoning

The Wan Hu story is described as a well-known legend with no surviving direct evidence to substantiate it [E1], and Wan Hu is said to have died in 1390, placing the tradition in the 14th century rather than the 11th [E2]. A scholar argues the story is plausible but traces its possible origins to late Ming/Qing transmission or a lost document [E3]. Sources attribute the invention of gunpowder rockets to 969 or 1000, though the dating is disputed [E4]; no evidence documents an 11th-century attempt to fly skyward, and the Wan Hu story is described as an unverified legend [E1] whose subject is said to have died in 1390 [E2], so the analogy presents a legend traditionally dated centuries later as an 11th-century event.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “A Chinese man tried to launch a rocket into space in the 11th century.” (said 15 June 2012). Verdict: mostly false. Reliability API, claim c_70e1354618a8, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_70e1354618a8

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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