Day One Investors in Pershing Square grew their equity at a 16.5% compounded annual rate over 20 years versus 10.0% for the S&P 500.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
True if Pershing Square's official 2024 reporting (annual/interim report or investor letter) states Day One Investors' compounded annual net return over the 20 years since inception as 16.5% versus 10.0% for the S&P 500 over the same period, matching computed data. Mostly true if either figure differs by up to 0.3 percentage points or the period is slightly different (for example through a different month-end). Mixed if one figure matches and the other is off by more. Mostly false if the figures are materially off (more than 1 point) but the outperformance is real. False if Day One Investors did not outperform the S&P 500 over the period or the figures are grossly wrong.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Pershing-Square-Holdings-Ltd.-2023-Annual-Report Scribd Own record
“For more than 20 years, the investment strategy pursued by the Investment Manager has generated a 16.5% annualized net return and cumulative net returns of 2,078.0% for PSLP/PSH (as converted) compared to a 10.0% annualized net return”
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E2 Pershing Square Holdings 2023 Letter To Shareholders Seeking Alpha · 24 March 2024 Own record
“The statistical data regarding the index has been obtained from Bloomberg and the returns are calculated assuming all dividends are reinvested.”
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E3 Pershing Square Holdings Full Year 2024 Letter To Shareholders (PSHZF) Seeking Alpha · 25 April 2025 Own record
“have grown their equity investment at a 15.9% compounded annual NAV return over the last 21 years, compared with a 10.0% return had they invested in the S&P 500 over the same period.”
Reasoning
E2, Pershing Square Holdings' 2023 Annual Report, says the strategy produced a 16.5% annualized net return for PSLP/PSH over more than 20 years, compared with a 10.0% annualized net return. That matches the claimed figures. The quoted excerpt is cut off before it names the 10.0% benchmark; E3, the 2023 shareholder letter, says only that the index return data came from Bloomberg and assumes dividends are reinvested, without naming the index or giving the figure. It is also supported by E4, the full-year 2024 letter, which gives the S&P 500 comparison at 10.0% over 21 years. The verdict rests only on the subject's own official reports; no independent recalculation was provided.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Day One Investors in Pershing Square grew their equity at a 16.5% compounded annual rate over 20 years versus 10.0% for the S&P 500.” (said 2024). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_6aac583e901c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_6aac583e901c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Ackman
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Mixed
“You own a portfolio of our best ideas, and it’s trading at an 18% discount to cash.”
PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash.
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Mostly true
“This lower return reflects the 35% discount to NAV at which PSH's stock currently trades.”
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Resolved true
“We recently made new investments in Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange, and Alcon (ALC), companies we have closely followed for years.”
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Resolved true
“Streetwise is now available for sale. Please see my review below.”
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Mixed
“Our new independent directors include long-term investors in PSH and the Pershing Square funds as well as new investors in the management company.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.