Amazon expected $100 million in sales in its first five years.

This concerns Amazon's expectations at its founding (around 1994–1995). True: contemporaneous evidence (the original business plan, investor pitch documents, or accounts by early investors or employees) shows that Amazon's projection was about $100 million in sales within its first five years, either cumulatively or reaching that level by year five. Mostly true: the projection was about $100M but framed a little differently (e.g., annual sales in year five rather than over five years, or over a five-to-six-year horizon), or it was within ~20% of $100M. Mixed: the sources conflict, or the projected figure was substantially different but of the same order (e.g., $50M or $200M). Mostly false: the early projections were far from $100M or covered a materially different timeframe. False: documented early projections clearly contradict the claim (a different order of magnitude or no such projection).

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon Brad Stone (book text; unofficial PDF copy)

   “Against that meager start, Bezos would tell investors he projected $74 million in sales by 2000 if things went moderately well, and $114 million in sales if they went”

2. E2 (IHP) Amazon's Founding Part 2 Internet History Podcast (transcript via podscripts.co) · 4 July 2023

   “The business plan that Bezos shopped around to these local investors was projecting $74 to $114 million in sales by the year 2000.”

3. E3 (IHP) Amazon's Founding Part 2 Internet History Podcast (transcript via podscripts.co) · 4 July 2023

   “Think about it. That's basically Bezos's most optimistic scenario by the year 2000 to reach about $100 million in sales.”

Brad Stone's book (E1) reports that Bezos told early investors he projected $74 million in sales by 2000 if things went moderately well and $114 million if they went better. The Internet History Podcast (E2, E3) describes the business plan the same way, and calls roughly $100 million Bezos's most optimistic scenario for 2000. These sources put the projection at about $100 million, but as the sales level by around year five or six rather than a flat five-year total. The $74M–$114M range sits near the claimed figure, so under the criteria the claim is mostly true rather than fully true.