GPT-4 has not solved hallucinations, reliability or planning on complex tasks, as the paper's authors acknowledge for planning.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2023-03-24. The claim has three parts: GPT-4 had not solved (1) hallucinations, (2) reliability, and (3) planning on complex tasks. It also says the paper's authors acknowledged (3). True: evidence from that time shows GPT-4 still produced hallucinations and unreliable outputs and failed at complex planning, and the paper discussed (e.g. Bubeck et al.) acknowledges limits in planning. OpenAI's own GPT-4 report admitting hallucination and reliability limits counts toward (1) and (2). Mostly true: all three limits are confirmed but the attribution is slightly off, e.g. the authors acknowledged the planning limit only in qualified or different terms. Mixed: one of the three limits is shown to have been substantially solved at that time, or the attribution is plainly wrong while the substantive limits hold. Mostly false: evidence from that time shows two of the three were substantially solved. False: evidence shows GPT-4 had effectively eliminated hallucinations and unreliability and could plan complex tasks reliably.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 GPT-4 OpenAI · 14 March 2023
“Most importantly, it still is not fully reliable (it “hallucinates” facts and makes reasoning errors).”
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E2 GPT-4 Technical Report arXiv (OpenAI authors)
“Most importantly, it still is not fully reliable (it “hallucinates” facts and makes reasoning errors).”
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E3 Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4 arXiv (ar5iv rendering)
“Throughout the paper we emphasize limitations whenever we found one, but we also dedicate Section to an in-depth analysis of the lack of planning, likely a direct consequence of the autoregressive nature of GPT-4’s architecture.”
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E4 GPT-4 Technical Report arXiv (OpenAI authors)
“GPT-4 significantly reduces hallucinations relative to previous GPT-3.5 models (which have themselves been improving with continued iteration).”
Reasoning
OpenAI's GPT-4 announcement and technical report (E1, E2) say GPT-4 "still is not fully reliable" and that it "hallucinates" facts and makes reasoning errors, which supports parts (1) and (2). The report also says GPT-4 significantly reduces hallucinations compared with GPT-3.5 (E4), but that is a reduction, not a solution. The Sparks of AGI paper by Bubeck et al. (E3) gives "an in-depth analysis of the lack of planning" in GPT-4, which supports part (3) and the claim that the authors acknowledged it.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “GPT-4 has not solved hallucinations, reliability or planning on complex tasks, as the paper's authors acknowledge for planning.” (said 24 March 2023). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_65baa675ff5a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_65baa675ff5a
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Gary Marcus
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Mostly true
“Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownle of one early prototype were damning;”
Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning.
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Mostly true
“Many would agree we have reached a point of diminishing returns for scaling; faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.”
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Mostly true
“Despite all the hype, agents didn’t turn out to be reliable.”
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Mixed
“but the systems don’t have the knowledge graph to do that.”
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Resolved true
“Hasn’t worked so far. That’s for sure.”
Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.
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