The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2019-02-16. The 'system' is OpenAI's GPT-2 and its published unicorn sample text. True: that output describes unicorns as having four horns (for example 'four-horned'), even though unicorns are defined as having one horn. Mostly true: the output contradicts the one-horn idea but the wording or number differs slightly from 'four'. Mostly false: the four-horn statement exists but the claim misattributes it, for example it came from a different system or from text written by humans. False: no such assertion appears in the system's output.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences — LessWrong LessWrong (post by sarahconstantin) · 25 February 2019
“These four-horned, silver-white unicorns were previously unknown to science.”
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E2 Humans Who Are Not Concentrating Are Not General Intelligences — LessWrong LessWrong (post by sarahconstantin) · 25 February 2019
“Also, you just said they had *one* horn, so why are you saying they have *four* horns in the next sentence?”
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E3 Improving Coherence and Consistency in Neural Sequence Models with Dual-System,Neuro-Symbolic Reasoning arXiv (ar5iv rendering)
“In another example, GPT-2 states that unicorns have “four horns,” directly after implying that unicorns only have one horn.”
Reasoning
E1 quotes the GPT-2 unicorn sample text directly: "These four-horned, silver-white unicorns were previously unknown to science." E2, from the same independent post, notes that the sample's earlier wording implies one horn, which the four-horn sentence then contradicts. E3, a later academic paper, also attributes the "four horns" statement to GPT-2, directly after it implies one horn. The output therefore describes unicorns as four-horned, which meets the criterion for true.
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “The system has no idea that a unicorn has one horn and asserts that it has four.” (said 16 February 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_64af14cb1503, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_64af14cb1503
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Gary Marcus
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Mostly true
“Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownle of one early prototype were damning;”
Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning.
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Mostly true
“Many would agree we have reached a point of diminishing returns for scaling; faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.”
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Mostly true
“Despite all the hype, agents didn’t turn out to be reliable.”
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Mixed
“but the systems don’t have the knowledge graph to do that.”
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Resolved true
“Hasn’t worked so far. That’s for sure.”
Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.