Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge against Pershing Square Holdings' (PSH) reported NAV total returns for the six calendar years before the 2024 statement (2018–2023), and the S&P 500 total return for the same years. True: PSH's reported compounded annual NAV return over 2018–2023 is 25.3% (±0.1 pp for rounding) and the annualized excess over the S&P 500 total return is about 1,320 bps (±10 bps). Mostly true: both figures are within 1 pp / 100 bps of the stated values, or they match exactly but the period or the fund basis (e.g., PSH vs. Pershing Square funds overall) differs slightly. Mixed: one figure matches and the other is off by more than that. Mostly false: the underlying returns are real but the claim misstates them materially, e.g., compounded return off by 1–4 pp, or the outperformance comes from a different period or measure. False: the reported figures differ by more than 4 pp, or PSH underperformed the S&P 500 over the period. A formal restatement of the NAV figures governs.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 Investment Manager’s Report investorkurs.no (hosts a compilation of Pershing Square Holdings annual reports 2017–2024) · 21 October 2025 Own record
“In 2023, Pershing Square’s 20th year, Pershing Square Holdings generated strong NAV performance of 26.7% versus 26.3% for our principal benchmark, the S&P 500 index.”
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E2 Investment Manager’s Report investorkurs.no (hosts a compilation of Pershing Square Holdings annual reports 2017–2024) · 21 October 2025 Own record
“Since the beginning of 2018, our NAV per share (including dividends) has more than tripled, up by 207% compared to 57% for the S&P 500 over the same period.”
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E3 S&P 500 Annual Returns by Year: Complete Table 1928–2026 historyofmarket.com · 4 July 2026
“| 2023 | +26.3% | | 2022 | −18.1% | | 2021 | +28.7% | | 2020 | +18.4% | | 2019 | +31.5% | | 2018 | −4.4% |”
Reasoning
E3 says PSH's NAV per share including dividends rose 207% from the beginning of 2018, against 57% for the S&P 500. The yearly S&P 500 figures in E4 compound to about 57% for 2018–2022, which suggests E3 covers the period up to the end of 2022, though E3 does not give the end date. Adding PSH's 2023 return of 26.7% (E2) gives about 3.89x over 2018–2023, or roughly 25.4% a year. The S&P 500 figures in E4 compound to about 12.1% a year over the same six years, so the excess is about 1,330 bps a year. Both figures are close to the claimed 25.3% and 1,320 bps. The result is mostly true rather than true because the period behind E3's 207% is inferred and the NAV figures come from Pershing Square's own reports.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Pershing Square's NAV returns compounded at 25.3% over the last six calendar years, 1,320 bps per year above the S&P 500's total return.” (said 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_63186bcfcfd6, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_63186bcfcfd6
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Ackman
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Mixed
“You own a portfolio of our best ideas, and it’s trading at an 18% discount to cash.”
PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash.
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Mostly true
“This lower return reflects the 35% discount to NAV at which PSH's stock currently trades.”
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Resolved true
“We recently made new investments in Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange, and Alcon (ALC), companies we have closely followed for years.”
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Resolved true
“Streetwise is now available for sale. Please see my review below.”
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Mixed
“Our new independent directors include long-term investors in PSH and the Pershing Square funds as well as new investors in the management company.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.