ClaimsVinod Khosla

“Yields have increased sevenfold because of good technology and good engineering.”

Vinod Khosla, venture capitalist, interviewee 28 September 2007 Interviews - Vinod Khosla (Frontline Heat) (PBS Frontline)

Factual Technology

US corn yields have increased sevenfold since 1920 due to technology and engineering.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge against USDA NASS historical US corn yield data (bushels per acre) for about 1920 compared with the latest years before 2007-09-28 (about 2004–2007). The claim also says the rise was due to technology and engineering. True: the ratio of recent yields to yields around 1920 is about 7 (6.3–7.7), and agronomic sources attribute the gain mainly to technology (hybrids, fertilizer, mechanisation, breeding). Mostly true: the ratio is 5.5–6.3 or 7.7–8.5, with the attribution correct. Mixed: the ratio is 4.5–5.5 or 8.5–9.5. Mostly false: the ratio is noticeably off but still shows a large multiple (e.g. 3–4.5 or above 9.5), or the attribution to technology is contradicted. False: the ratio is under 3.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Development of Hybrid Corn and the Seed Corn Industry Springer (chapter by A.F. Troyer, Handbook of Maize) · 2009

    “Corn hybrids were first commercially grown in the early 1930s when the annual U.S. corn yields averaged 1,518 kg per ha (24.2 bushels per acre)”
  2. E2 Development of Hybrid Corn and the Seed Corn Industry Springer (chapter by A.F. Troyer, Handbook of Maize) · 2009

    “In 2007, the average U.S. corn yield was estimated at 9,474 kg per ha (151.1 bushels per acre)”
  3. E3 Development of Hybrid Corn and the Seed Corn Industry Springer (chapter by A.F. Troyer, Handbook of Maize) · 2009

    “These increases were caused by better hybrids, improved cultural practices, and biotechnology.”
  4. E4 Technological innovations have increased corn yields USDA Economic Research Service · 19 September 2017

    “Average national corn yield (a productivity measure) rose from around 30 bushels per acre in the 1930s (where it stood since USDA began measuring them in the 1860s) to nearly 180 bushels per acre in the present decade.”

Reasoning

E2 puts the 2007 average US corn yield at an estimated 151.1 bushels per acre. E4 says yields stood at about 30 bushels per acre from the 1860s through the 1930s, which implies about 30 around 1920 and a ratio of roughly 5. E1's early-1930s figure of 24.2 bushels per acre would give about 6.2, but that baseline is a decade after 1920. Both ratios fall below the 6.3–7.7 range the criteria set for "about sevenfold"; the more direct baseline of about 30 lands in the mixed band (4.5–5.5). E3 and E4 support crediting the gain to technology (hybrids, cultural practices, biotechnology), but the ratios the evidence supports, about 5 against E4's long-standing baseline of around 30 bushels per acre and about 6.2 against E1's early-1930s figure, fall below sevenfold.

Cite this claim

Vinod Khosla, “US corn yields have increased sevenfold since 1920 due to technology and engineering.” (said 28 September 2007). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_62830114a8ea, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_62830114a8ea

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Vinod Khosla, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Vinod Khosla

  1. Mostly true Factual 9 April 2024
    “Here was an immigrant who had founded a cutting-edge technology company in America.”

    Andy Grove was an immigrant who founded a cutting-edge technology company in America.

  2. Mixed Factual 6 September 2020
    “In my 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" I called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery!”

    In his 2011 "Black Swan Thesis of Energy Transformation" Vinod Khosla called Quantumscape a "quantum-nano-thingamagitit" battery.

  3. Mostly true Factual 14 January 2014
    “Even oil prospecting has a greater than 55-percent failure rate, yet we still do it.”

    Oil prospecting has a failure rate greater than 55 percent.

  4. Resolved true Factual 23 December 2010
    “I didn't think we'd been investing in glass, I didn't think we would be inventing a brand new engine type that's 50 percent more efficient at less cost than today's engines.”

    Khosla's portfolio is developing a new engine type that is 50 percent more efficient at less cost than today's engines.

  5. Mostly false Factual 28 September 2007
    “The vast majority of scientists will tell you that these have 20 to 30 percent [carbon reduction].”

    The vast majority of scientists will say that these fuels give a 20 to 30 percent carbon reduction.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.