ClaimsDemis Hassabis

“My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let’s say.”

Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind, interviewee 23 July 2025 Transcript for Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games (#475) (Lex Fridman)

Prediction AI timelines and forecasting

There is a 50% chance that AGI is achieved by 2030.

Not yet due The date it refers to has not come.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

deadline 2030 is after 2026-11-04

Cite this claim

Demis Hassabis, “There is a 50% chance that AGI is achieved by 2030.” (said 23 July 2025). Verdict: not yet due. Reliability API, claim c_619bcc9a45ea, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_619bcc9a45ea

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Demis Hassabis, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More prediction claims by Demis Hassabis

  1. Resolved true Prediction 28 February 2024
    “I think the next versions of this over the next year, 18 months, we’ll maybe have some contextual understanding of the environment around you through a camera or a phone or some glasses.”

    Hassabis said he thought the next versions of these systems, over the next year to 18 months, might have some contextual understanding of the user's environment through a camera, phone or glasses.

  2. Resolved true Prediction 23 July 2025
    “I think fusion and solar are the two that I would bet on.”

    Asked whether it would be nuclear fusion, Demis Hassabis said he thinks fusion and solar are the two energy sources he would bet on.

All of them

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