ClaimsNassim Taleb

“The scale of the pandemic might change, but the tail properties will remain invariant.”

Taleb, Bar-Yam and Cirillo, co-authors of paper July 2020 On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables (arXiv) archived copy

Prediction Biosecurity

The scale of the pandemic might change, but its tail properties will remain invariant.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?

Reasoning

A general claim about tail properties with no horizon, and it is a mathematical or modeling assertion rather than a testable event.

Cite this claim

Nassim Taleb, “The scale of the pandemic might change, but its tail properties will remain invariant.” (said July 2020). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5dedadd84b3c, method 0.1.0+28da144b, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5dedadd84b3c

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

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