ClaimsBill Ackman

“Fascinatingly it does much better.”

Bill Ackman, speaking at Ira Sohn Conference 6 June 2011 Transcript of Bill Ackman's Super Fast Speech at the Ira Sohn Conference (Insider Monkey)

Factual Economics and markets

Dollar General performs much better than Family Dollar.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2011-06-06. The claim compares Dollar General with Family Dollar. Read 'does much better' on the performance measures in use when it was said: sales per square foot, same-store sales growth, operating margin and returns. True: Dollar General's figures for the most recent fiscal periods before June 2011 were clearly better than Family Dollar's (for example a meaningfully higher operating margin and higher sales per square foot) on most of these measures. Mostly true: Dollar General was clearly better on the main profitability measures but only about equal on one secondary measure. Mixed: the measures are split, or Dollar General was only slightly better. Mostly false: Dollar General was better on only a minor measure, or 'much' greatly overstates a small gap. False: Family Dollar matched or beat Dollar General on the main measures.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (12)

  1. E1 Form 10-K - SEC.gov U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Dollar General Corporation filing)

    “Average sales per square foot in 2010 were $201, up from $195 in 2009.”
  2. E2 Family Dollar's Net Rises Amid Plans To Open 300 Stores Perishable News (reproducing Family Dollar Stores, Inc. press release) · 29 September 2010

    “Gross profit, as a percentage of sales, was 35.7% in fiscal 2010 compared to 34.8% in fiscal 2009.”
  3. E3 market folly Market Folly · 25 May 2011

    “Ackman notes that Family Dollar has fallen behind competitor Dollar General (DG) ever since KKR bought DG and now FDO has to improve.”
  4. E4 All in the family ira sohn conference.2011 SlideShare (Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. presentation) · 25 May 2011 Own record

    “Family Dollar’s lower profitability is a result of both lower sales per square foot”
  5. E5 Form 10-K, Dollar General Corporation, fiscal year ended January 28, 2011 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Dollar General Corporation)

    “Net sales per square foot (4) | $ | 201 | $ | 195 | $ | 180 | $ | 165 | $ | 164 | $ | 163 |”
  6. E6 Form 10-K, Dollar General Corporation, fiscal year ended January 28, 2011 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Dollar General Corporation)

    “Same store sales growth (3) | | 4.9% | | 9.5% | | 9.0%”
  7. E7 All in the family ira sohn conference.2011 SlideShare (presentation by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.) · 25 May 2011 Own record

    “DG FDO % Diff '12 EPS FY 2012 Sales/sqft $ 210 $ 180 17% $ 0.65 FY 2012 EBIT Margin 10.5% 7.6% 38% 1.46”
  8. E8 All in the family ira sohn conference.2011 SlideShare (presentation by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.) · 25 May 2011 Own record

    “Family Dollar’s lower profitability is a result of both lower sales per square foot”
  9. E9 DG News 2011-3-22 General Trans Dollar General Corporation (press release, hosted on Scribd) · 22 March 2011

    “Fourth Quarter Same-Store Sales Increased 3.8%; Full Year Same-Store Sales Increased 4.9%”
  10. E10 DG News 2011-3-22 General Trans Dollar General Corporation (press release, hosted on Scribd) · 22 March 2011

    “Operating profit, as a percentage of sales, improved 295 basis points to 11.7 percent in the 2010 fourth quarter.”
  11. E11 Family Dollar Margins Pressured Supermarket News · 10 January 2011

    “For the first quarter that ended Nov. 27, comps rose 6.9% — the biggest first-quarter jump in more than 12 years, the company said — while overall sales rose 9.5% to just under $2 billion and net income increased 9.9% to $74.3 million.”
  12. E12 Family Dollar Margins Pressured Supermarket News · 10 January 2011

    “Gross profit margin as a percentage of sales fell to 36%, compared with 36.1% in last year's first quarter”

Reasoning

Dollar General's own filings show sales per square foot of $201 in 2010 [E1, E5], same-store sales growth of 4.9% for 2010 [E6, E9] and a fourth-quarter 2010 operating margin of 11.7% [E10]. None of the independent sources gives Family Dollar's sales per square foot or operating margin for the same period. The only side-by-side figures (sales/sqft of $210 vs $180 and EBIT margin of 10.5% vs 7.6%) are FY2012 numbers in Pershing Square's own presentation, which is not independent of Ackman [E7]. On same-store sales, the independent evidence gives Family Dollar 6.9% comps for its quarter to November 2010 [E11] and Dollar General 4.9% for its full 2010 year [E9], but these periods differ and cannot be directly compared. So the independent evidence does not settle the main measures in the criteria.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Dollar General performs much better than Family Dollar.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_5c0685b7774e, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5c0685b7774e

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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