ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“Nobody ever reports the gross numbers.”

Marc Andreessen, venture capitalist, interviewee 1 January 2018 The Tim Ferriss Show Transcripts: Marc Andreessen (#163) (Tim Ferriss blog) archived copy

Factual AI, the economy and work

Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

The claim has two parts: (a) gross job creation and destruction figures go unreported, and (b) the US destroys over 5 million and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter. Read (a) as the speaker means it: mainstream news coverage of jobs reports leaves the gross figures out and reports only net change. It is not a claim that no agency publishes them. Test (b) against BLS Business Employment Dynamics (BED) gross job gains and gross job losses for the quarters before the claim (about 2015–2017). True: BED shows gross losses above 5 million and gross gains above 6 million in typical recent quarters, and news coverage of employment reports at the time centred on net payroll change and rarely gave gross flows. Mostly true: (b) holds and gross flows got only occasional press coverage, or (b) holds in most but not all recent quarters. Mixed: one part holds and the other fails, e.g. the numbers are right but the gross figures were regularly reported in mainstream outlets. Mostly false: the gross figures fall below the stated thresholds (e.g. losses under 5 million in most quarters) but are of the same order, and the coverage point holds. False: the BED figures are far from the stated magnitudes, or gross flows were routinely headlined in mainstream coverage.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (9)

  1. E1 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8 November 2017

    “From December 2016 to March 2017, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.3 million, a decrease of 127,000 jobs over the quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.7 million, a decrease of 391,000 jobs from the previous quarter.”
  2. E2 Gross job gains exceed gross job losses by 688,000 in third quarter of 2016 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (The Economics Daily) · 1 May 2017

    “From June 2016 to September 2016, the net employment gain in private industry was 688,000. Gross job gains were 7,650,000, and gross job losses totaled 6,962,000.”
  3. E3 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 25 January 2017

    “From March 2016 to June 2016, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.5 million, an increase of 486,000 jobs from the previous quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.2 million, an increase of 373,000 jobs from the previous quarter.”
  4. E4 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8 November 2017

    “Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.7 million, a decrease of 391,000 jobs from the previous quarter.”
  5. E5 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 8 November 2017

    “From December 2016 to March 2017, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.3 million, a decrease of 127,000 jobs over the quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
  6. E6 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 23 March 2017

    “Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 7.2 million, an increase of 373,000 jobs from the previous quarter.”
  7. E7 Quarterly Data Series on Business Employment Dynamics News Release U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 23 March 2017

    “From March 2016 to June 2016, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 7.5 million, an increase of 486,000 jobs from the previous quarter, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.”
  8. E8 Employment gain 829,000 during second quarter of 2015 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily · 2 February 2016

    “From March 2015 to June 2015, job gains from opening and expanding private sector establishments were 7.6 million. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private sector establishments were 6.7 million.”
  9. E9 Employment gain of 654,000 during first quarter of 2017 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Economics Daily · 22 November 2017

    “From December 2016 to March 2017, job gains from opening and expanding private sector establishments were 7.3 million. Over this period, gross job losses from closing and contracting private sector establishments were 6.7 million.”

Reasoning

I rated this mostly true: the numbers check out, but nothing in the evidence shows how the press covered gross job figures. BLS Business Employment Dynamics releases put private-sector gross job gains at 7.3–7.6 million a quarter and gross job losses at 6.7–7.2 million in each quarter they cover. Those quarters are Q2 2015, Q2 2016, Q3 2016 and Q1 2017 (E1, E2, E3, E9, E10), so part (b) holds: losses were over 5 million and gains over 6 million. On part (a), the criteria ask whether mainstream news reported these figures, and the fact that BLS publishes them does not count. The evidence neither shows the gross flows were regularly reported nor confirms they were left out, which keeps this from being fully true.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “Gross job creation and destruction figures are not reported; the US destroys over 5 million jobs and creates over 6 million jobs per quarter.” (said 1 January 2018). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_5c032604204d, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_5c032604204d

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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