In the American economy, the rate of job creation and destruction is falling rather than rising.

Judged as of January 2018. True: official US labour-market data (BLS Business Employment Dynamics, Census Business Dynamics Statistics, or JOLTS) or peer-reviewed research show that rates of job creation and job destruction (job reallocation or churn) declined over the preceding decades. Mostly true: the long-run decline is clear, but one of the two rates or some recent years depart slightly from it, for example a short-term uptick after 2010. Mixed: one rate fell while the other did not, or the trend is mixed across measures. Mostly false: the decline holds only for a narrow sector or period and is presented as economy-wide. False: the data show job creation and destruction rates rising or flat over the relevant period.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The Decline in Employment Dynamism Over the Last Three Decades U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

   “Both the job creation and job destruction statistics exhibit the same stair-step pattern as the reallocation rate, meaning they drop following periods of recession, and hold steady in subsequent quarters.”

2. E2 The Decline in Employment Dynamism Over the Last Three Decades U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

   “In the third quarter of 1992—the first quarter in which business employment statistics were released—the reallocation rate stood at 15.7 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the reallocation rate was 11.7 percent.”

3. E3 Declining Dynamism, Allocative Efficiency & Productivity Slowdown U.S. Census Bureau (Center for Administrative Records Research and Applications working paper CARRA-WP-2017-02, by Decker, Haltiwanger, Jarmin and Miranda) · 3 January 2017

   “A large literature documents declining measures of business dynamism including high-growth young firm activity and job reallocation.”

4. E4 Understanding Declining Fluidity in the U.S. Labor Market Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FEDS working paper by Molloy, Smith, Trezzi and Wozniak) · March 2016

   “We document a clear downward trend in labor market fluidity that is common across a variety of measures of worker and job turnover.”

E1 is a BLS analysis of Business Employment Dynamics data. It finds that job creation and job destruction both fell over time in a stair-step pattern that tracks the reallocation rate. E2 reports that the reallocation rate dropped from 15.7 percent in the third quarter of 1992 to 11.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019. Research published before January 2018 records the same thing: a Census working paper (E3) describes falling job reallocation, and a Federal Reserve paper (E4) finds a clear downward trend across measures of job and worker turnover. This meets the criteria's test for true: official data and research show both rates declining over the preceding decades.