TradeSports implied probabilities of a US or Israeli attack on Iran are higher than they were a few weeks before April 2006.

True if TradeSports contract prices for a US and/or Israeli air strike on Iran on about 2006-04-10 were higher than their prices a few weeks earlier (roughly mid-to-late March 2006). Mostly true if the rise holds for the main contract(s) but one contract or the exact timing differs slightly. Mixed if some contracts rose and others fell or stayed flat. Mostly false if prices were essentially flat, with only a negligible rise. False if prices were lower than a few weeks earlier.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 A mini-interview with Dr. Robert Hanson, crowd prediction data expert Reporter's Notebook (Steve Peterson), hosted at mason.gmu.edu · 4 April 2007

   “Apparently, Tradesports users were less concerned about potential military action against Iran since they collectively wagered a 20.5% chance that an air strike would occur by the end of this year.”

2. E2 Chances of Airstrikes and Seahawks Opinio Juris · 5 February 2006

   “Chances of an airstrike on Iran by March 2007? About 35%, almost the same chances that the Seattle Seahawks will win the Super Bowl today.”

E2, a blog post dated 5 February 2006, gives about a 35% chance of an airstrike on Iran by March 2007, but the quoted text does not name the market or source of the figure. E1 cites a 20.5% chance of an airstrike by the end of the year, apparently from around mid-April 2006. These figures come from different contracts and different dates, and neither gives prices for mid-to-late March 2006 or for about April 10, 2006. The evidence therefore cannot show whether prices had risen over the few weeks before the claim.