The number of deaths of children under 5 worldwide rose in 2025, going backwards on a key metric of progress.

The claim is that the global number of deaths of children under 5 was higher in 2025 than in 2024. True: credible estimates available around early 2026 (IHME/Gates Foundation Goalkeepers or GBD-based projections, UN IGME, WHO/UNICEF) show global under-5 deaths for 2025 above the 2024 figure. Mostly true: the estimates show a rise, but only as a projection or modelled estimate, or the reported increase is marginal or falls within the estimate's uncertainty, as long as the central estimate rises. Mixed: credible sources disagree, with some showing a rise and others flat or falling. Mostly false: deaths did not rise, but a related measure worsened (for example the pace of decline slowed sharply, the under-5 mortality rate stalled, or there was a rise in some regions only), and the claim presents this as a global increase. False: credible estimates show global under-5 deaths fell in 2025 compared with 2024.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “In 2024, 4.6 million children died before their fifth birthday. In 2025, that number is projected to rise for the first time this century, by just over 200,000, to an estimated 4.8 million children.”

2. E2 With Child Deaths Projected to Rise for the First Time This Century, Gates Foundation Urges Global Leaders to Target Scarce Resources Where They Save the Most Lives Gates Foundation · 3 December 2025 Own record

   “In 2024, 4.6 million children died before their 5th birthday. According to modeling in the report, conducted by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), that number is projected to rise by just over 200,000—to an estimated 4.8 million children this year.”

3. E3 2025 Goalkeepers Report | Ending Preventable Child Deaths with Primary Healthcare, Vaccines, and Next-Gen Innovations Gates Foundation (Goalkeepers) · 1 January 2026 Own record

   “The 13 health indicators we track with our partner, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), incorporate the projected impact of potential health funding reductions, assuming a 20% reduction to Development Assistance for Health in 2026 compared to 2024 funding levels.”

The 2025 Goalkeepers Report [E1] and the Gates Foundation press release [E2] say 4.6 million children died before age 5 in 2024. They say IHME modelling projects this will rise by just over 200,000 to about 4.8 million in 2025, the first rise this century. The resolution criteria name Goalkeepers/IHME estimates as a credible source, so this supports a rise. However, the 2025 figure is a projection from IHME modelling [E1, E2], so under the criteria the verdict is mostly true rather than true. No independent estimate, such as one from UN IGME or WHO/UNICEF, is in the evidence.