ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“Today’s stock market actually hates technology, as shown by all-time low price/earnings ratios for major public technology companies.”

Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 20 August 2011 Why Software Is Eating the World (a16z) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios.

Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

True: market data from August 2011 show that P/E ratios for major public technology companies (for example, large-cap tech such as Microsoft, Apple, Intel, Cisco, or a tech-sector index) were at or very near their all-time (historical) lows at that time. Mostly true: valuations were at multi-decade or historically very low levels and close to record lows, but not strictly the lowest ever for every major company, or the record holds for the sector index but not for every company. Mixed: some major tech companies were at record lows while the sector as a whole was not. Mostly false: P/E ratios were low compared with recent years (for example, below the dot-com era or the 10-year average) but clearly above earlier historical lows, so 'all-time low' overstates it. False: P/E ratios for major tech companies and the sector were not unusually low by historical standards.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Tech Stocks Cheapest Since 1998 as IPOs Spur Bubble Fear StockWatch (republishing Bloomberg data) · 6 June 2011

    “It trades at 9.7 times reported earnings, down from its peak multiple of 81 in 1999. The 34 percent discount to the S&P 500 is the widest since at least 1992, Bloomberg data show.”
  2. E2 Tech Stocks Cheapest Since 1998 as IPOs Spur Bubble Fear StockWatch (republishing Bloomberg data) · 6 June 2011

    “Based on those estimates, technology companies trade for 12.8 times profit, compared with 13.1 for the S&P 500, data compiled by Bloomberg show.”
  3. E3 Microsoft Looks Very Attractive Before The Windows 8.0 Release (NASDAQ:MSFT) Seeking Alpha · 25 August 2011

    “Over the past 13 years, the company's valuation multiples have compressed severely: the Enterprise Value/Sales ratio plummeted from 24.3x to 2.4x, while the P/E ratio dropped from 62x to 1.0x. Microsoft's current valuation is the lowest in its history.”
  4. E4 financial Archives MacDailyNews · 19 December 2011

    “Zaky: Apple’s P/E Ratio at lowest level since financial crisis despite 92% earnings growth”

Reasoning

E1 (Bloomberg data, June 2011) is headlined 'Tech Stocks Cheapest Since 1998' and reports an unnamed subject ('It') trading at 9.7 times reported earnings, down from a peak of 81 in 1999. Their discount to the S&P 500 was the widest since at least 1992. That is a low level, but it is not an all-time low for the sector. E3 (August 2011), a Seeking Alpha article, says Microsoft's valuation was the lowest in its history, which suggests at least one major company may have been at a record low; the same article gives a P/E of 1.0x, which makes its figures less certain. E4, a headline on a page dated December 2011, says Apple's P/E was at its lowest level since the financial crisis, which is not an all-time low; it does not show Apple's P/E as of August 2011. The evidence reports at most one major company (Microsoft, per E3) at a record low, while the sector as a whole was described as the cheapest since 1998 rather than at an all-time low (E1), which is closest to the "mixed" criterion.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “As of August 2011, major public technology companies had all-time low price/earnings ratios.” (said 20 August 2011). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_4eb98cf04405, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4eb98cf04405

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Marc Andreessen

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  2. Mostly true Factual 26 January 2025
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  3. Mixed Factual 16 October 2023
    “Technological innovation in a market system is inherently philanthropic, by a 50:1 ratio.”

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  4. Mostly false Factual 16 October 2023
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  5. Mostly true Factual 16 October 2023
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All of them

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