Twelve of the 16 rising-power challenges to existing powers over the last 500 years were shooting wars.

Judge against Graham Allison's Thucydides's Trap research (Harvard Belfer Center case file; 'Destined for War', 2017), the standard source for the 500-year count of rising-power-versus-ruling-power cases. True: the source counts 16 cases, 12 of which ended in war. Mostly true: the count differs by one in either number (e.g. 12 of 17, or 11 of 16), for example in an updated version of the case file. Mixed: the ratio broadly matches (about three quarters ended in war), but both numbers differ. Mostly false: the cited research shows a much smaller share ended in war, or the figures come from a different, narrower dataset presented as general. False: the source's figures contradict 12 of 16 outright, e.g. a minority ended in war.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Thucydides' Trap: Caveat Emptor RSIS (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU) · 28 August 2019

   “He reports that in 12 of 16 past instances, this phenomenon has ended in war.”

2. E2 Can the U.S. and China Build a Stable Great-Power Relationship? UC San Diego Forum on U.S.-China Relations (text of 2026 Susan Shirk Lecture by Graham Allison) · 6 August 2026

   “My 2017 book Destined for War reviews the past 500 years and identifies 16 cases in which a rapidly rising power threatens to displace a major ruling power. 12 of the 16 cases end in war.”

3. E3 Thucydides's Trap: Resources and Methodology Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs · 1 January 2026

   “The current Case File includes 16 examples.”

4. E4 Thucydides' Trap: Caveat Emptor RSIS (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU) · 28 August 2019

   “Allison’s selection criteria for his 16 episodes of past power transition and his standards for designating “ruling” and “rising” states are unclear.”

An independent RSIS commentary from 2019, written before the claim date, reports that Allison found 12 of 16 past instances ended in war (E1). In his 2026 lecture text, Allison says his 2017 book Destined for War identifies 16 cases over 500 years, 12 of which ended in war (E2). The Belfer Center confirms that the Case File contains 16 examples (E3). The claim that 12 of 16 cases were wars matches the source named in the criteria.