ClaimsGary Marcus

“The first is that the two giant OpenAI and Microsoft papers have been about a model about which absolutely nothing has been revealed, not the architecture, nor the training set.”

Gary Marcus, Substack author 24 March 2023 The Sparks of AGI? Or the End of Science? (Marcus on AI) archived copy

Factual AI capabilities

The OpenAI and Microsoft GPT-4 papers reveal nothing about the model's architecture or training set.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of 2023-03-24, against OpenAI's GPT-4 Technical Report (March 2023) and Microsoft's 'Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence' paper (March 2023). True: neither paper discloses substantive information about GPT-4's architecture (for example model size, layer structure, mixture-of-experts) or its training set (data sources, composition, size), beyond generic statements. Mostly true: the papers give only minimal, generic descriptions, for example 'a Transformer-style model pre-trained on publicly available data and data licensed from third-party providers' and fine-tuned with RLHF, which make 'absolutely nothing' a slight overstatement while the substance holds. Mixed: one paper discloses meaningful architecture or training-data details and the other does not. Mostly false: the papers disclose several meaningful details about the architecture or training data. False: the papers give substantial specifics about both.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 OpenAI's GPT-4 Is Closed Source and Shrouded in Secrecy Vice · 16 March 2023

    “Given both the competitive landscape and the safety implications of large-scale models like GPT-4, this report contains no further details about the architecture (including model size), hardware, training compute, dataset construction, training method.”
  2. E2 OpenAI's GPT-4 Is Closed Source and Shrouded in Secrecy Vice · 16 March 2023

    “This means that OpenAI did not disclose what it used to train the model or how it trained the model, including the energy costs and hardware used for it, making GPT-4 the company's most secretive release thus far.”
  3. E3 OpenAI never disclosed GPT-4's size or architecture CenterConsulting · 14 March 2023

    “Given both the competitive landscape and the safety implications of large-scale models like GPT-4, this report contains no further details about the architecture (including model size), hardware, training compute, dataset construction, training method, or similar.”

Reasoning

E1 and E3 quote the GPT-4 Technical Report as saying it "contains no further details about the architecture (including model size), hardware, training compute, dataset construction, training method." E2 independently reports that OpenAI did not disclose what it used to train GPT-4 or how it trained it. The words "no further details" suggest the report gave some minimal, generic description, so "absolutely nothing" slightly overstates it, though the substance holds. None of the evidence covers Microsoft's Sparks paper, so this verdict rests mainly on the OpenAI report.

Cite this claim

Gary Marcus, “The OpenAI and Microsoft GPT-4 papers reveal nothing about the model's architecture or training set.” (said 24 March 2023). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_45e5958ed6a9, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_45e5958ed6a9

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Gary Marcus

  1. Mostly true Factual January 2026
    “Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownle of one early prototype were damning;”

    Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning.

  2. Mostly true Factual January 2026
    “Many would agree we have reached a point of diminishing returns for scaling; faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.”

    Many would agree the AI field has reached a point of diminishing returns from scaling, and faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.

  3. Mostly true Factual January 2026
    “Despite all the hype, agents didn’t turn out to be reliable.”

    AI agents did not turn out to be reliable in 2025.

  4. Mixed Factual 2025
    “but the systems don’t have the knowledge graph to do that.”

    Current AI systems lack the knowledge graph needed to handle easy facts like those on the first page of Wikipedia.

  5. Resolved true Factual 2025
    “Hasn’t worked so far. That’s for sure.”

    Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.

All of them

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