Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI.
Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
True if a paper or article by Gary Marcus titled "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" was first posted publicly (e.g. arXiv submission date or blog post date) on 2 January 2018, and its text raises whether deep learning may be approaching a wall and argues it is one tool among several needed for AGI or general intelligence. Mostly true if it was posted within a few days of 2 January 2018, or if one of the two framings (approaching a wall; one tool among many) is present only loosely or in different words. Mixed if the paper exists under that title but the date is off by weeks to months, or only one of the two arguments appears. Mostly false if the date is off by more than a year, or the paper makes neither argument in recognisable form. False if no such paper by Marcus exists, or it was first posted in a clearly different year.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Gary Marcus’ Deep Learning Critique Triggers Backlash | Synced Synced · 6 January 2018
“On January 2, NYU Professor and Founder of Uber-owned machine learning startup Geometric Intelligence Gary Marcus published the paper Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal on ArXiv.”
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E2 Gary Marcus’ Deep Learning Critique Triggers Backlash | Synced Synced · 6 January 2018
“So is deep learning hitting a wall as argued in Marcus’ paper?”
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E3 Gary Marcus’ Deep Learning Critique Triggers Backlash | Synced Synced · 6 January 2018
“He then raised possibilities for a future beyond deep learning: focus more on unsupervised learning; symbol-manipulation (aka GOFAI, the Good Old-Fashioned AI); derive insights from cognitive and developmental psychology; or focus more on acquiring common sense knowledge, scientific reasoning, game playing, etc.”
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E4 Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal axi.lims.ac.uk (arXiv 1801.00631 listing)
“I present ten concerns for deep learning, and suggest that deep learning must be supplemented by other techniques if we are to reach artificial general intelligence.”
Reasoning
An independent Synced article dated 6 January 2018 reports that Marcus published "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on arXiv on January 2 (E1). The arXiv identifier 1801.00631 is consistent with January 2018 (E4). The paper's abstract says deep learning must be supplemented by other techniques to reach artificial general intelligence, which matches the "one tool among many" framing (E4). Synced describes the paper as arguing that deep learning is hitting a wall (E2), and says it points to approaches beyond deep learning (E3).
Cite this claim
Gary Marcus, “Gary Marcus posted "Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal" on 2018-01-02, asking whether deep learning might be approaching a wall and be just one tool among many needed for AGI.” (said 2 January 2019). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_4420abdd274c, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_4420abdd274c
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Gary Marcus
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Mostly true
“Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownle of one early prototype were damning;”
Reviews by Joanna Stern and Marques Brownlee of one early humanoid robot prototype were damning.
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Mostly true
“Many would agree we have reached a point of diminishing returns for scaling; faith in scaling as a route to AGI has dissipated.”
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Mostly true
“Despite all the hype, agents didn’t turn out to be reliable.”
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Mixed
“but the systems don’t have the knowledge graph to do that.”
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Resolved true
“Hasn’t worked so far. That’s for sure.”
Bolting extra components onto an LLM and scaling it up has so far not produced human-level AGI.
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.