American manufacturing output is higher than ever.
Mixed Partly true and partly false in roughly equal measure.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge said mostly false; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of April 2020, using data available then. True: real US manufacturing output (e.g. Federal Reserve industrial production index for manufacturing, or BEA real manufacturing value added) was at or near its all-time high in the latest data before the statement. Mostly true: real value added was at a record while the Fed production index was slightly below its peak, or output was within a few percent of the record. Mixed: measures disagree substantially. Mostly false: output was well below its previous peak (e.g. the Fed manufacturing index stayed below its 2007 peak through 2019 and fell sharply in March and April 2020), with the claim resting only on one favorable measure or an older period. False: every main measure shows output clearly below its historical high.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Annual Manufacturing Review: 2019 - GovInfo National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST Advanced Manufacturing Series 100-28), by Douglas S. Thomas · November 2019
“The result is that first quarter GDP in 2019 is 20.0 % above its pre-recession peak level while manufacturing is at 2.7 % above its peak level.”
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E2 Annual Manufacturing Review: 2019 - GovInfo National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST Advanced Manufacturing Series 100-28), by Douglas S. Thomas · November 2019
“In 2017, manufacturing finally surpassed its pre-recession peak.”
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E3 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve Board · 15 April 2020
“Total industrial production fell 5.4 percent in March, as the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic led many factories to suspend operations late in the month. Manufacturing output fell 6.3 percent;”
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E4 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Federal Reserve Board · 15 April 2020
“The decreases for total industrial production and for manufacturing were their largest since January 1946 and February 1946, respectively.”
Reasoning
E1 and E2, from NIST's 2019 manufacturing review, say manufacturing went past its pre-recession peak in 2017 and was 2.7% above it in the first quarter of 2019. That supports a record on the value-added measure in the period before the statement. But the Federal Reserve release of April 15, 2020 (E3, E4), the latest data before the claim, shows manufacturing output fell 6.3% in March 2020, its largest monthly drop since 1946. That makes it unlikely output was at an all-time high when the claim was made. The evidence does not give the Fed index's level against its earlier peak, so on this record the measures point different ways and the claim is only partly supported.
Cite this claim
Marc Andreessen, “American manufacturing output is higher than ever.” (said 18 April 2020). Verdict: mixed. Reliability API, claim c_3ff8e1a5d6a3, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3ff8e1a5d6a3
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Mixed
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.