Ackman said the business he was describing earns a 20% return on capital overall.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
Judge as of 2011-06-06. First identify which business Ackman was describing, from the context of the speech or interview. True: that company's financial statements from around 2011 support an overall return on capital (ROIC or a comparable measure) of about 20%, in roughly the 17–23% range. Mostly true: about 15–17% or 23–26%. Mixed: the figure depends heavily on the definition (for example it holds for one segment only, or only on adjusted capital). Mostly false: the return is materially different, about 10–15% or above 30%, though still high. False: the return is far from 20% (under 10%). If the business cannot be identified, the claim is unresolvable.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (5)
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E1 Pershing Square Presentation on Canadian Pacific Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (hosted on 10xebitda.com) · 6 February 2012 Own record
“CP’s ROIC is Low and Lags CN’s”
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E2 Pershing Square Presentation on Canadian Pacific Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (hosted on 10xebitda.com) · 6 February 2012 Own record
“CP’s low profitability and poor asset utilization result in low returns on invested capital”
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E3 untitled Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (Annual Report 2010) · 2011
“The balance sheet was further strengthened by reducing longterm debt by approximately $250 million and making a $650 million voluntary prepayment to the Canadian Defined Benefit Pension Plan;”
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E4 The Nominees for Management Change (Pershing Square presentation on Canadian Pacific) Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. (hosted on 10xebitda.com) · 6 February 2012 Own record
“CP’s low profitability and poor asset utilization result in low returns on invested capital”
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E5 Pershing Square, Ackman and CP Rail IGOPP (Allaire and Dauphin) · November 2016
“Pershing Square began purchasing shares of CP on September 23, 2011.”
Reasoning
None of the evidence shows which business Ackman was describing when he made the statement on 2011-06-06. The Pershing Square deck on Canadian Pacific (E1, E2, E4) dates from February 2012. It says CP's return on invested capital is low but gives no number. E5 says Pershing Square only began buying CP shares in September 2011, after the statement, and E3 contains no return-on-capital figure. The business cannot be identified and no return figure is given, so under the criteria the claim is unresolvable.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Ackman said the business he was describing earns a 20% return on capital overall.” (said 6 June 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_3f42c31c64e8, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_3f42c31c64e8
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Ackman
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Resolved false
“the average life of an S&P 500 CEO is probably, I don’t know, 4 years or 3 years, 3 and a half years or something like this.”
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Mostly true
“SpaceX is near monopoly in terms of low-cost space launch.”
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Resolved true
“We created it out of the bankruptcy of General Growth.”
Howard Hughes was created out of the bankruptcy of General Growth as a spinoff of its other assets.
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Resolved true
“2 years later, we emerged from Chapter 11.”
General Growth emerged from Chapter 11 two years after Pershing Square's investment.
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Resolved true
“The company’s got a 4 billion dollar market cap, and the goal is to build it into a trillion-dollar thing over time, compounding.”
Howard Hughes Holdings has a market capitalisation of about $4 billion.
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