ClaimsBill Ackman

“"The growth in earnings that you're seeing here is not driven by an increase in revenue growth."”

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square head, CNBC interview 21 July 2014 Pershing Square's Ackman: Why I think Herbalife is going to collapse (CNBC)

Factual Economics and markets

Allergan's reported earnings growth is not driven by an increase in revenue growth.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judge as of July 2014, using Allergan's reported results and guidance for the period it was then reporting (Q2 2014, first half of 2014, and 2014 guidance). True: Allergan's reported earnings (EPS) growth materially outpaced its revenue growth, and its filings, earnings calls or analysts attribute the earnings growth mainly to cost cuts, margin expansion, buybacks or tax rather than to faster revenue growth; revenue growth was stable or slowing, not accelerating. Mostly true: earnings growth came mainly from non-revenue factors, but faster revenue growth contributed a minor part. Mixed: revenue growth and cost or margin factors contributed roughly equally. Mostly false: accelerating revenue growth was the main driver of earnings growth, with cost actions secondary. False: earnings growth was in line with or below revenue growth, and was clearly driven by higher revenue growth.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (4)

  1. E1 Allergan Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups View & Plans 13% Job Cut Yahoo Finance (Zacks Investment Research article) · 21 July 2014

    “While earnings climbed 23.8% from the year-ago quarter, revenues increased 16.1% to $1,854.5 million, above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1,720 million.”
  2. E2 Allergan Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups View & Plans 13% Job Cut Yahoo Finance (Zacks Investment Research article) · 21 July 2014

    “The company continues to expect cost of sales to product net sales ratio of about 12.5%. The company maintained its guidance for SG&A expense to product net sales ratio at 37%–38% and R&D expense to product net sales ratio at 16.5%.”
  3. E3 Allergan Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups View & Plans 13% Job Cut Yahoo Finance (Zacks Investment Research article) · 21 July 2014

    “The company expects product net sales in a band of $6,900–$7,050 million in 2014 (previous guidance: $6,775–$7,000 million).”
  4. E4 Allergan Beats on Q2 Earnings, Ups View & Plans 13% Job Cut Yahoo Finance (Zacks Investment Research article) · 21 July 2014

    “The restructuring plan will be carried out over the rest of the year and is expected to deliver annual pre-tax savings of approximately $475 million in 2015.”

Reasoning

E1 shows Q2 2014 earnings rose 23.8% against revenue growth of 16.1%, but no evidence item breaks the earnings growth into revenue and cost factors or shows whether revenue growth was accelerating. E2 and E3 cover only full-year guidance, so the evidence does not settle which factor drove the earnings growth.

Cite this claim

Bill Ackman, “Allergan's reported earnings growth is not driven by an increase in revenue growth.” (said 21 July 2014). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_314c8e3c619a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_314c8e3c619a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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