Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The evidence is the person's or their organisation's own records.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Judge as of the 2024 statement date, using the performance period Pershing Square states. True if Pershing Square's reported cumulative net returns for Day One investors (since inception on 1 January 2004) correspond to a multiple of about 22x (21.5–22.5x) and the S&P 500 total return over the same period corresponds to about 7x (6.5–7.5x). Mostly true if each multiple is within about 10% (roughly 20–24x and 6.3–7.7x). Mixed if one multiple is accurate and the other materially off. Mostly false if both differ by more than 10% but Pershing still clearly outperformed. False if the multiples are far off or Pershing did not outperform the index over the period.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (1)
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E1 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. Interim Report and Unaudited Condensed Interim Financial Statements, June 30, 2024 Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. · 15 August 2024 Own record
“For nearly 21 years, the investment strategy pursued by the Investment Manager has generated a 15.7% annualized net return and cumulative net returns of 1,932.7% for PSLP/PSH (as converted) compared to a 10.1% annualized net return and cumulative net returns of 630.0% for the S&P 500, PSH’s historical benchmark index, during the same period.”
Reasoning
Pershing Square's June 30, 2024 interim report [E3] gives cumulative net returns of 1,932.7% for PSLP/PSH (as converted) over nearly 21 years. That is a multiple of about 20.3x. The S&P 500 returned 630.0% over the same period, a multiple of about 7.3x. The S&P figure falls within the 'about 7x' band. The Pershing multiple is below the 21.5–22.5x band but inside the roughly 20–24x range for 'mostly true'. The evidence comes from the subject's own official report, and its figures are for PSLP/PSH as converted rather than a separately stated Day One investor series.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Day One Investors multiplied their investment 22 times versus seven times for a zero-fee S&P 500 index fund.” (said 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_31493ed41541, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_31493ed41541
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
More factual claims by Bill Ackman
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Mixed
“You own a portfolio of our best ideas, and it’s trading at an 18% discount to cash.”
PSUS holds a portfolio of Pershing Square's best ideas and trades at an 18% discount to cash.
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Mostly true
“This lower return reflects the 35% discount to NAV at which PSH's stock currently trades.”
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Resolved true
“We recently made new investments in Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Netflix, S&P Global, Intercontinental Exchange, and Alcon (ALC), companies we have closely followed for years.”
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Resolved true
“Streetwise is now available for sale. Please see my review below.”
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Mixed
“Our new independent directors include long-term investors in PSH and the Pershing Square funds as well as new investors in the management company.”
Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.