ClaimsMarc Andreessen

“Today’s largest direct marketing platform is a software company—Google.”

Marc Andreessen, a16z co-founder, essay author 20 August 2011 Why Software Is Eating the World (a16z) archived copy

Factual Economics and markets

As of 2011, Google was the largest direct marketing platform.

Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.

What would count as true or false

The test is whether Google was the largest direct-marketing platform in 2011, measured by revenue from direct-response or performance marketing. True: Google's 2011 direct-response advertising revenue was larger than that of any other single platform or company, including direct mail carriers, catalogue or direct-mail firms, and other online ad platforms. Mostly true: Google was the largest on most reasonable measures, but one rival came close or led on a narrow measure. Mixed: whether Google ranks first depends on how direct marketing is defined, and the measures disagree. Mostly false: Google was a major direct-marketing platform but another platform was clearly larger by the usual measures. False: Google was not a significant leader in direct marketing.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (10)

  1. E1 SEO Blog-New News on Online Ad Spending SEO Blog (sonicseo.com) · 2 March 2011

    “Google (Most Popular Site): Up 23.5% from 2010 totaling to 12.39 billion dollars in 2011”
  2. E2 Digital Ad Spend to Climb 14%, Social Media 35% MarketingProfs · 21 January 2011

    “Direct mail spending is expected to reach $47.8 billion in 2011, up 5.8%, driven by acquisition-mail increases.”
  3. E3 Digital Ad Spend to Climb 14%, Social Media 35% MarketingProfs · 21 January 2011

    “Search spending is expected to account for most (56%) of digital spending in 2011, reaching $17.7 billion, up 13% from 2010 levels.”
  4. E4 Form 10-K Google Inc. (filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) · 19 January 2012

    “Aggregate paid clicks on Google websites and Google Network Members’ websites increased approximately 25% from 2010 to 2011 and approximately 16% from 2009 to 2010.”
  5. E5 Google Inc. Form 10-K (fiscal year ended December 31, 2011) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Google Inc.)

    “We generate revenue primarily by delivering relevant, cost-effective online advertising.”
  6. E6 Google Inc. Form 10-K (fiscal year ended December 31, 2011) U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (filed by Google Inc.)

    “We bring businesses into our advertising network through direct, remote, and online sales channels, using technology and automation wherever possible”
  7. E7 Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Results TechPowerUp (reposting Google Inc. earnings release) · 20 January 2012

    “Google reported revenues of $10.58 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2011, an increase of 25% compared to the fourth quarter of 2010.”
  8. E8 Google Announces Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2011 Results TechPowerUp (reposting Google Inc. earnings release) · 20 January 2012

    “Google-owned sites generated revenues of $7.29 billion, or 69% of total revenues, in the fourth quarter of 2011.”
  9. E9 IAB Internet Advertising Revenue Report - Full Year 2011 Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB), survey conducted by PwC · April 2012

    “In 2011, Search revenues totaled $14.8 billion, up almost 27% from $11.7 billion in 2010.”
  10. E10 DMA Releases New 'The Power of Direct Marketing' Industry Forecast for Direct Mail Packaging/Printing trade site (PI World), reporting a Direct Marketing Association release · 3 October 2011

    “Direct mail expenditures will grow 4.6 percent to just over $50 billion, DRTV will have even higher growth (6.1 percent).”

Reasoning

E1 puts Google's 2011 figure at $12.39 billion, up 23.5% from 2010; it does not give figures for other platforms. E7 and E8 give Google's Q4 2011 revenue of $10.58 billion. The direct-mail figures in E2 and E10 (about $48–50 billion) cover the whole channel, not any one company. No evidence gives revenue for a single direct-mail carrier or catalogue firm, so the evidence cannot show whether Google was larger than every rival, as the criteria require.

Cite this claim

Marc Andreessen, “As of 2011, Google was the largest direct marketing platform.” (said 20 August 2011). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_2ba25bf92876, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_2ba25bf92876

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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All of them

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