Not long ago, Elon Musk was talking about launching rockets while people laughed at the idea.
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
What would count as true or false
'Not that long ago' is loose and is not held to a strict timeframe: the early years of SpaceX (about 2002 to 2010) count. True: reliable accounts show that Musk publicly talked about launching rockets through SpaceX and that his plans were widely met with ridicule, scepticism or laughter from industry figures, the press or the public. Mostly true: there was strong documented scepticism, but 'laughing' overstates it somewhat. Mixed: scepticism is documented only in limited or isolated quarters. Mostly false: Musk's rocket plans were generally taken seriously, with only scattered doubt. False: there is no basis for saying the plans were ridiculed, or the premise is wrong (e.g. Musk did not talk about launching rockets).
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space Los Angeles Times · 22 April 2003
“Doubters call Musk’s vision pie in the sky, a gross underestimation of the technological and commercial challenges SpaceX will face.”
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E2 Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space Los Angeles Times · 22 April 2003
“probably a couple dozen entrepreneurs have tried this in the last 10 years, and they’ve all gone out of business.”
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E3 Entrepreneur Tries His Midas Touch in Space Los Angeles Times · 22 April 2003
“Some industry experts say Musk has the vision and fortitude to make the venture work, if anyone does.”
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E4 #369 Elon Musk and The Early Days of SpaceX Founders Podcast (via podscripts.co) · 1 November 2024
“And I remember a lot of chuckling and laughter”
Reasoning
A 2003 Los Angeles Times article on SpaceX (E1, E2) shows that Musk was publicly pursuing rocket launches and that doubters called his vision "pie in the sky," noting that a couple dozen similar ventures had gone out of business. The same article says some experts thought he could succeed (E3), so the doubt was strong but not universal. A 2024 podcast recalls "a lot of chuckling and laughter" (E4), but the quote does not say who laughed or in what setting. Strong scepticism is well documented, while the evidence for open laughter is thinner, so the claim is mostly true.
Cite this claim
Sam Altman, “Not long ago, Elon Musk was talking about launching rockets while people laughed at the idea.” (said 18 March 2024). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_271dff43a8b1, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_271dff43a8b1
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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