Tesla thinks Dojo will be competitive with the NVIDIA H1 at the end of 2023 and hopefully surpass it in 2024.
Unresolvable The public record could not settle it.
Prediction: Statements about events outside the person's control, checked once they fell due: did they come true?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
Said for an organisation they lead or work for; it counts on both records.
What would count as true or false
Hedged two-part prediction. Part one: Tesla's Dojo training system would be competitive with NVIDIA's H100 (the 'H1') by the end of 2023. Part two: Dojo would surpass the H100 in 2024. Judged by the end of 2024. Evidence can be benchmarks, independent analysis, or Tesla's own disclosed performance or cost-efficiency comparisons on its training workloads; Tesla's statements need supporting data. True: the evidence shows Dojo was comparable to H100 by the end of 2023 and exceeded it during 2024. Mostly true: both parts broadly hold, with a minor timing slip of under a quarter for part one, or the outcome holding only on some per-cost metrics. Mixed: part one held but part two did not. Mostly false: Dojo was deployed at some scale but was not competitive with H100 in either year. False: credible reporting shows Dojo fell well short, was scaled back, or Tesla relied mainly on NVIDIA hardware because Dojo was not competitive.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (4)
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E1 Tesla Dojo: The rise and fall of Elon Musk's AI supercomputer | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 2 September 2025
“Tesla never provided an update or any information that would suggest it ever reached these goals.”
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E2 Tesla Dojo: The rise and fall of Elon Musk's AI supercomputer | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 2 September 2025
“The D1 wasn’t as powerful as Nvidia’s A100 chip, though.”
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E3 Tesla’s Dojo, a timeline | TechCrunch TechCrunch · 2 September 2025
“Once it became clear that all paths converged to AI6, I had to shut down Dojo and make some tough personnel choices, as Dojo 2 was now an evolutionary dead end,”
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E4 Tesla's Dojo prediction by Morgan Stanley boosts TSLA stock price, report shows how critical the FSD supercomputer is for Musk's tech empire - Tesla Oracle Tesla Oracle · 13 September 2023
“According to Tesla, Dojo is 6x faster compared to the A100 chips.”
Reasoning
The evidence shows that the D1 chip was less powerful than Nvidia's A100 (E2), that Tesla gave no update showing it reached its Dojo goals (E1), and that Dojo was later shut down after work converged on AI6 (E3). No evidence item compares Dojo with the H100 or links the shutdown to Dojo not being competitive, so the criteria cannot be applied.
Cite this claim
Elon Musk, “Tesla thinks Dojo will be competitive with the NVIDIA H1 at the end of 2023 and hopefully surpass it in 2024.” (said 26 January 2023). Verdict: unresolvable. Reliability API, claim c_26a4ee031ece, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_26a4ee031ece
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
Reply to this claim
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Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.