Americans' belief that things are getting worse than they really are holds for racial and gender equality, poverty, incarceration, education and health.

The claim is that US survey data show Americans believe things are getting worse than they really are in each of the six areas: racial equality, gender equality, poverty, incarceration, education and health. True: as of 2022-12-23, survey evidence (e.g. the polling Pinker referenced, Gallup, Pew, or similar) shows that Americans' perceptions of trends are more pessimistic than measured trends in all six areas. Mostly true: this holds for five of the six, or for all six with one based on weak or indirect data. Mixed: it holds for about half of the areas. Mostly false: it holds for only one or two areas, or the actual trends in most areas really were worsening as perceived. False: the survey data show that perceptions in these areas were accurate or more optimistic than reality, or the measured trends were in fact worsening.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Key findings on Americans’ views of race in 2019 Pew Research Center · 9 April 2019

   “Overall, 53% of the public says race relations are getting worse, while 17% say they are getting better and 30% say they’re staying the same.”

2. E2 Most States Had Lower Official Poverty Rates in 2019-2021 Than a Decade Earlier U.S. Census Bureau · 7 February 2023

   “Overall, the national average official poverty rate fell from 14.8% in 2009-2011 to 11.2% in 2019-2021.”

3. E3 Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress by Steven Pinker - A Plus A Plus (Hong Kong Institute of CPAs) · 29 August 2018

   “citing a YouGov poll in 2015 that showed majorities in 14 major countries and territories, including United Kingdom, the United States, France and Hong Kong, thought the world was getting worse.”

4. E4 Study finds Americans do not like mass incarceration University of Cincinnati · 28 May 2025

   “About 15 years ago, however, he says prison populations suddenly and unexpectedly stopped growing and then started to decline; Americans' punitiveness also started to decline, he says.”

5. E5 Study finds that Americans think things are worse than they are Medical Xpress (reporting on Mitchell & Tetlock, Clinical Psychological Science) · 8 May 2023

   “On 22 of 24 survey questions about the state of things in America, most people thought things had gotten worse.”

6. E6 Study finds that Americans think things are worse than they are Medical Xpress (reporting on Mitchell & Tetlock, Clinical Psychological Science) · 8 May 2023

   “Returning to the question about the life expectancy of an African American child between 2005 and 2017, respondents were unduly pessimistic and thought it had decreased by one or two years.”

7. E7 1. Americans' views about public health and health studies in the news Pew Research Center · 2 February 2017

   “Nearly half (48%) of Americans believe children's health, as a whole, is worse today than it was 20 years ago; by comparison, a smaller share, 31%, believe children's health is better today.”

8. E8 A Century After Women Gained the Right To Vote, Majority of Americans See Work To Do on Gender Equality Pew Research Center · 7 July 2020

   “Still, a majority of U.S. adults say the country hasn't gone far enough when it comes to giving women equal rights with men, even as a large share thinks there has been progress in the last decade, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.”

Only one area has both a perception and a measured trend: E6 reports that respondents wrongly thought African American child life expectancy had fallen, which covers health and one aspect of race. E5 says Americans thought things had worsened on 22 of 24 survey questions, but it does not list the topics. For the other areas the evidence is one-sided. E1 and E7 report pessimistic views on race relations and children's health with no measured trend to compare against. E2 and E4 show poverty and incarceration declining, but neither reports what people believed. E8 shows many Americans did see progress on gender equality, and there is no evidence on education. The evidence therefore does not settle whether the claim holds in all six areas.