Dalio did not anticipate the COVID-19 pandemic and was taken by surprise by it.

This is a self-report about Dalio's own expectations before COVID-19 (early 2020). True: before roughly February 2020, Dalio and Bridgewater made no public forecast or positioning that anticipated a pandemic, and contemporaneous accounts (e.g. reports of Bridgewater's flagship Pure Alpha fund losing heavily in Q1 2020 while positioned for rising markets, or Dalio's January 2020 Davos remark that 'cash is trash') fit his being surprised. Mostly true: he was largely surprised but had made some general remarks about tail risks, without specifically anticipating a pandemic. Mixed: the evidence is truly split, e.g. he publicly flagged pandemic risk as a material concern before it happened but did not act on it. Mostly false: dated records show he had clearly flagged a pandemic as a likely near-term risk before it struck, so 'took me by surprise' overstates it. False: dated pre-pandemic statements or fund positioning show he specifically anticipated the COVID-19 pandemic or a pandemic shock and positioned for it.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Even Bridgewater Associates was caught flat-footed by the ... CNBC · 15 March 2020

   “"We did not know how to navigate the virus and chose not to because we didn't think we had an edge in trading it. So, we stayed in our positions and in retrospect we should have cut all risk," Dalio told the Financial Times in a statement.”

2. E2 Even Bridgewater Associates was caught flat-footed by the ... CNBC · 15 March 2020

   “Bridgewater's massive losses come after Dalio told CNBC in late January investors should take cash out of their portfolio, noting”

3. E3 Ray Dalio Fund's Assets Tumbled 15% During Pandemic Crash | Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer (ai-cio.com) · 19 June 2020

   “Leaders at the hedge fund expected the coronavirus to be yet another one of a number of unknown risks in 2020, including cyber threats and the possibility of wars breaking out in Iran and North Korea.”

4. E4 Ray Dalio Fund's Assets Tumbled 15% During Pandemic Crash | Chief Investment Officer Chief Investment Officer (ai-cio.com) · 19 June 2020

   “Dalio said the firm had taken a long tilt in its positions to take advantage of liquidity in the markets leading up to the market crash.”

Independent reports show Bridgewater stayed in its positions as the crash hit. Dalio said the firm "did not know how to navigate the virus" and in hindsight "should have cut all risk" (E1). He also said the firm had taken a long tilt before the crash (E4). In late January he had told investors to take cash out of their portfolios (E2), which fits his account of being surprised. E3 says firm leaders counted the coronavirus among several unknown 2020 risks, which looks like a general mention of tail risk rather than an actual forecast, so the claim is mostly true rather than fully true.