AI development has a critical mass basically in two places in the world, the United States and China.

Judged as of 2023-06-12. True: data from that time on AI development (top AI labs, frontier models, AI investment, compute, notable models, top researchers) shows the US and China as the two clearly dominant centres, each well ahead of every other country. Mostly true: the US and China lead clearly, but one other place (e.g. the UK with DeepMind, or the EU) has a notable though smaller share. Mixed: the US and China lead, but one or more other countries are comparable on major measures, so 'basically two places' is only partly accurate. Mostly false: the US clearly dominates while China is far behind, or other countries match China, so the two-place framing distorts the picture. False: the evidence shows AI development was widely spread, or that the US and/or China were not leaders.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 [PDF] The Economy - Stanford HAI Stanford HAI (Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2023, Chapter 4)

   “the United States led all regions with the largest number of newly funded AI companies at 542, followed by China at 160 and the United Kingdom at 99 (Figure 4.2.16).”

2. E2 CHAPTER 1: Index Report 2024 Research and Development Stanford HAI (Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2024, Chapter 1)

   “The United States leads China, the EU, and the U.K. as the leading source of top AI models. In 2023, 61 notable AI models originated from U.S.-based institutions, far outpacing the European Union’s 21 and China’s 15.”

3. E3 The generative world order: AI, geopolitics, and power Goldman Sachs · 14 December 2023

   “Today, there are two AI superpowers, the United States and China. But they are not the only countries that will define the technology’s future.”

4. E4 The State of AI in Different Countries — An Overview BlueDot Impact · 15 August 2023

   “The 2023 AI Index reports that, according to their definition of “significant,” the United States stood out with 16 significant ML systems, followed by the United Kingdom with 8, China with 3, and then Canada, Germany, France, India, Russia, and Singapore.”

E1 shows the US far ahead in newly funded AI companies (542), followed by China (160) and the UK (99). On notable or significant models, E4 cites the 2023 AI Index: the US had 16, the UK 8 and China 3. E2 reports that in 2023 the EU produced 21 notable models to China's 15, so other places matched or beat China on a major measure. E3 does describe the US and China as the two AI superpowers, so the claim is right that both lead, but other countries were comparable on key measures, which makes "basically two places" only partly accurate.