ClaimsPeter Thiel

“China has four times the population, so we have to really out-innovate them”

Peter Thiel, interviewee 9 November 2022 Peter Thiel, Leader Of The Rebel Alliance (Hoover Institution)

Factual Other

China has about four times the population of the United States.

Resolved true The record shows it happened or was so.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Compare the populations of China and the US in 2022 (e.g. UN World Population Prospects, China NBS, US Census Bureau). True: the ratio is between about 3.7 and 4.5. Mostly true: the ratio is between 3.4 and 3.7 or between 4.5 and 4.8. Mostly false: the ratio is between 3.0 and 3.4 or between 4.8 and 5.3. False: the ratio is outside those bounds.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 2022 National and State Population Estimates Press Kit US Census Bureau · 22 December 2022

    “The U.S. resident population increased by 0.4%, or 1,256,003, to 333,287,557 in 2022, according to the 2022 national and state population estimates.”

  2. E2 [PDF] release note about major differences in total population estimates for ... United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · 11 July 2022

    “The population of the United States in 2021 is 337 million, which is 4.1 million (1.2 per cent) more than the previous estimate from the 2019 revision.”

  3. E3 [PDF] release note about major differences in total population estimates for ... United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · 11 July 2022

    “The population of China in 2021 is 1.43 billion, which is 18.3 million (1.3 per cent) less than the previous estimate from the 2019 revision.”

Reasoning

The UN World Population Prospects 2022 release note puts China's 2021 population at 1.43 billion [E3] and the United States' at 337 million [E2], a ratio of about 4.2. Comparing the same China figure with the US Census Bureau's 2022 estimate of 333.3 million [E1] gives about 4.3. Both ratios fall within the 3.7–4.5 range the criteria set for "true". The UN figures are for 2021, not 2022, but year-to-year changes in either population are too small to move the ratio out of that range.

Cite this claim

Peter Thiel, “China has about four times the population of the United States.” (said 9 November 2022). Verdict: resolved true. Reliability API, claim c_169a86f49d34, method 0.1.0+3e03e2df, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_169a86f49d34

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

For Peter Thiel, or someone speaking for them: a correction or counter-evidence. Replies are read before anything is shown; an approved reply shows your name, role, date, statement and link. Your email address is never shown and is deleted 30 days after the decision (privacy).

More factual claims by Peter Thiel

  1. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2026
    “In Goethe's "Faust," he has a pact with the devil and he sort of gets this knowledge by morally dubious means.”

    In Goethe's Faust, Faust makes a pact with the devil and, in Thiel's words, "sort of" gains knowledge by morally dubious means.

  2. Mostly true Factual 30 September 2026
    “But it still always works out more for the best and Goethe's Faust gets redeemed.”

    In Goethe's Faust, things work out more for the best and Faust is redeemed.

  3. Mixed Factual April 2024
    “To see Satan is to see Satan fall, so the only time Satan appears in the Bible is at the very end of the world.”

    Satan appears in the Bible as seen by humans only at the very end of the world; elsewhere he only talks to God or Christ.

  4. Mixed Factual April 2024
    “I believe it was during the French Revolution because it was believed that verbal ability ran in families.”

    Thiel said he believed society's bias toward testing math ability began during the French Revolution, because verbal ability was believed to run in families.

  5. Mostly true Factual April 2024
    “I’m not sure it’s esoteric, but it is the book of Revelations, is the apocalypse because apocalypse in Greek means unveiling, and if you unveil the social order, you might end up deconstructing and…”

    The word 'apocalypse' in Greek means 'unveiling'.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.