ClaimsEliezer Yudkowsky

“Yet human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make the story more plausible.”

Eliezer Yudkowsky, author of the chapter 2008 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgment of global risks (UC Berkeley (hosted))

Factual Science and research methods

Human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make a story more plausible.

Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.

Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?

The second judge said resolved true; the verdict shown is the first judge's.

What would count as true or false

Judged against psychology research as of 2008. The claim is hedged ('seems to'). TRUE: experimental research such as Tversky & Kahneman's conjunction-fallacy studies (the 1983 Linda and Bjorn Borg problems, the 1982 scenario studies) and its replications show that adding specific details to a scenario often increases people's judgements of its probability or plausibility. MOSTLY TRUE: the effect is well documented, but the evidence shows it depends heavily on how the task is framed (e.g. it shrinks with frequency formats), a caveat the hedge only partly covers. MIXED: the evidence as of 2008 is roughly evenly divided on whether added detail raises judged plausibility. MOSTLY FALSE: the effect is shown to be mostly an artefact (e.g. of misunderstanding 'probability' or 'and'), with only narrow support. FALSE: research shows that added details do not increase, or consistently decrease, judged plausibility.

Set before the research began.

Evidence (3)

  1. E1 On the reality of the conjunction fallacy Memory & Cognition (Springer) · 2002

    “Despite the precautions, conjunction fallacies were as frequent under betting instructions as under standard probability instructions.”
  2. E2 On Narrow Norms and Vague Heuristics: A Reply to Kahneman and Tversky (1996) Psychological Review (American Psychological Association), via Max Planck Institute PDF · 1996

    “Recent studies using paraphrasing and protocols suggest that participants draw a variety of semantic inferences”
  3. E3 The conjunction fallacy? A reply to Bar-Hillel Memory & Cognition (Psychonomic Society) · 1991

    “I do not believe, however, that it is sufficient to account for all of the data.”

Reasoning

E2 (2002) found that conjunction fallacies happened as often under betting instructions as under standard probability instructions. That supports the claim that people judge a more detailed conjunction as more likely, and that this is not just a wording artefact. E3 (1996) shows that before 2008 the interpretation was disputed: critics argued that participants read the problem's wording in different ways. E4 (1991) says one alternative explanation is not enough to account for all of the data. On balance, the evidence supports the hedged claim but shows a live debate about task framing, which fits "mostly true".

Cite this claim

Eliezer Yudkowsky, “Human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make a story more plausible.” (said 2008). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_14e8db09965a, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_14e8db09965a

This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.

Reply to this claim

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More factual claims by Eliezer Yudkowsky

  1. Mostly true Factual September 2025
    “And that in turn provided a lot of indirect support for the atomic theory.”

    Conservation of mass provided a lot of indirect support for atomic theory.

  2. Mostly true Factual September 2025
    “The conservation of mass was one of the first hints that things were being rearranged rather than created or destroyed.”

    The conservation of mass was one of the first hints that things are rearranged rather than created or destroyed.

  3. Resolved true Factual September 2025
    “The way that if you burn something inside a sealed glass vessel, it didn't change weight.”

    Burning a substance inside a sealed glass vessel does not change the total weight.

  4. Mostly true Factual 26 December 2020
    “that ignorance is a mental rather than physical property.”

    E. T. Jaynes said many times that probability is ignorance and that ignorance is a mental rather than physical property, and Yudkowsky repeated this often.

  5. Mixed Factual 2008
    “General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures.”

    General intelligence is a between-species difference, a complex adaptation, and a human universal found in all known cultures.

All of them

Verdicts are made automatically; how verdicts are made.