Musk said his personal guess was that "we" would achieve full self-driving in 2022, with a safety level significantly greater than the present.

Judge as of 31 Dec 2022. 'Full self-driving' means Tesla vehicles driving themselves without a human needing to supervise, at a safety level significantly better than at the time of the claim (e.g. clearly safer than human drivers or than the January 2022 system). Supervised driver-assistance (FSD Beta needing an attentive driver) does not count, however widely it was released. TRUE: by end-2022 Tesla deployed or officially released driving that needs no supervision (driver not responsible, or regulatory approval for driverless operation), with published safety data showing it to be significantly safer. MOSTLY TRUE: unsupervised capability was achieved and deployed by end-2022, but the safety evidence is thin or only somewhat better. MIXED: not used for a single-outcome prediction. MOSTLY FALSE: by end-2022 Tesla only widened or improved supervised FSD Beta (e.g. a wide release in North America) and still required driver supervision. FALSE: no unsupervised self-driving was achieved or deployed in 2022, as shown by Tesla's own product terms, 10-K and regulatory filings that still required an attentive driver. The hedge ('personal guess') does not change the test.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 10-K U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Tesla, Inc. annual report for fiscal year ended December 31, 2022) Own record

   “In particular, we offer in our vehicles in certain markets Autopilot and FSD Capability features that today assist drivers with certain tedious and potentially dangerous aspects of road travel, but which currently require drivers to remain fully engaged in the driving operation.”

2. E2 10-K U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Tesla, Inc. annual report for fiscal year ended December 31, 2022) Own record

   “Further, during the fourth quarter of 2022, we recognized $324 million in revenue related to the general FSD feature release in North America.”

3. E3 Tesla Full Self-Driving Beta is now available to all owners in North America Electrek · 24 November 2022

   “Since the responsibility rests with the driver and not Tesla’s system, it is still considered a level-two driver-assist system, despite its name.”

4. E4 ODI RESUME (Investigation EA22002, Autopilot System Driver Controls) U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Defects Investigation · 25 April 2024

   “Autopilot is characterized by Tesla as an SAE Level 2 (“L2 system”) partial driving automation system that provides driver assistance through steering, propulsion, and braking within a specified driving environment under direct supervision of the driver.”

Tesla's annual report for fiscal 2022 (E1) says its Autopilot and FSD Capability features "currently require drivers to remain fully engaged in the driving operation." So no unsupervised self-driving had been deployed by the end of 2022. What Tesla did do was widen its supervised system: E2 records a general FSD feature release in North America in Q4 2022, and Electrek (E3) reported in November 2022 that FSD Beta was open to all North American owners. E3 also says the system was still a level-two driver-assist system with the driver responsible. NHTSA (E4) likewise describes Tesla's system as SAE Level 2 under direct driver supervision. This is the case the criteria name for MOSTLY FALSE: a wide North American release of supervised FSD Beta that still needed driver supervision.