OpenAI has said throughout 2023 that it expects AI progress to continue.

Judged as of 2023-11-30. True: OpenAI or its leaders (Altman, Brockman, Sutskever or official OpenAI posts) said repeatedly and publicly across 2023, and not only in one month, that they expected AI capabilities or progress to keep advancing. Examples would be Altman's congressional testimony, blog posts such as 'Governance of superintelligence', the Superalignment announcement, or interviews. Mostly true: such statements were made in most of 2023 but were sparse in part of the year, or were hedged. Mixed: only a few such statements can be found, or OpenAI's messaging in 2023 was notably contradictory, for example statements that progress would slow. Mostly false: OpenAI's 2023 messaging mostly stressed limits or a slowdown, with only isolated statements expecting continued progress. False: OpenAI said in 2023 that it did not expect progress to continue.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Governance of superintelligence - OpenAI OpenAI · 22 May 2023 Own record

   “Given the picture as we see it now, it’s conceivable that within the next ten years, AI systems will exceed expert skill level in most domains, and carry out as much productive activity as one of today’s largest corporations.”

2. E2 Introducing Superalignment OpenAI · 5 July 2023 Own record

   “we believe it could arrive this decade.”

3. E3 Inside OpenAI [Entire Talk] Stanford Technology Ventures Program · 26 April 2023

   “AI is going to continue to progress.”

4. E4 GPT‑4 - OpenAI OpenAI · 14 March 2023 Own record

   “As we continue to focus on reliable scaling, we aim to hone our methodology to help us predict and prepare for future capabilities increasingly far in advance—something we view as critical for safety.”

OpenAI publicly said in several different months of 2023 that it expected AI capabilities to keep advancing. The GPT-4 post (E4, March) speaks of continued "reliable scaling" and preparing for future capabilities. A Stanford talk on OpenAI (E3, April) states that "AI is going to continue to progress." 'Governance of superintelligence' (E1, May) and the Superalignment announcement (E2, July) say AI could exceed expert skill or arrive this decade. This meets the "not only in one month" test, but the evidence covers only March to July, gives nothing for August to November, and E1 and E2 are hedged ("conceivable", "could"), so the verdict is mostly true rather than true.