Tyler Cowen expected China to have an excess-capacity debt crisis, and it did not happen.

The claim has two parts: (1) Cowen had earlier predicted an excess-capacity debt crisis in China; (2) as of 2019-12-23, no such crisis had happened. True if earlier Cowen writings or statements show he expected a Chinese debt crisis tied to excess capacity or overinvestment, and if, as of December 2019, China had seen no systemic debt crisis (no banking collapse, wave of defaults causing a financial crisis, or sharp debt-driven downturn). Mostly true if both hold but his earlier prediction was hedged or framed somewhat differently, for example as a general debt or financial crisis. Mixed if only one part is supported. Mostly false if what happened in China by late 2019 is widely described as a debt crisis, even a localized one. False if no record shows Cowen made such a prediction and evidence shows he expected the opposite, or if China clearly did have such a crisis before December 2019.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Reports of China’s economic death are greatly exaggerated Lowy Institute (The Interpreter) · 21 January 2020

   “More definite than most, in 2015 prolific economist/author Tyler Cowen predicted imminent financial collapse, putting the economy in sustained recession.”

2. E2 Marginal REVOLUTION Marginal Revolution (Tyler Cowen blog) · 27 August 2015 Own record

   “Imports and exports falling 7-8% don’t cut it, because durables-based foreign trade falls much more rapidly than the rest of an economy.”

3. E3 China bond defaults hit record in 2018. The 2019 pace is triple that Business Times (Singapore), reprinting Bloomberg · 8 May 2019

   “This year is shaping up to be the biggest by far for defaults in China's US$13 trillion bond market, highlighting the widening fallout from the government's campaign to rein in leverage.”

4. E4 Ghost cities, shadow banks, and empty airports: Inside China's looming great wall of debt ABC News (Australia) · 20 January 2019

   “A 2016 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report found 38 out of 43 economies whose national debt was 30 per cent higher than its GDP experienced "severe disruption" in the form of financial crises and a decline in growth.”

E1, an independent piece from January 2020, says Cowen predicted in 2015 an imminent Chinese financial collapse that would put the economy into sustained recession. That confirms an earlier crisis prediction, but E1 frames it as a general financial collapse rather than one tied specifically to excess capacity. The same article, titled 'Reports of China's economic death are greatly exaggerated', indicates no such collapse had happened by late 2019. E3 reports record bond defaults in 2019, but it describes them as fallout from the deleveraging campaign, not as a systemic financial crisis, so both parts hold, with the prediction framed somewhat differently than in the claim.