People in counties that voted heavily for Donald Trump in the last presidential election have been nearly three times as likely to die from COVID-19.

Judge against analyses available as of 2021-12-05 (e.g., NPR's December 2021 analysis by Charles Gaba). True: a credible analysis found that COVID-19 death rates in heavily pro-Trump counties (2020 election) were nearly three times those in heavily pro-Biden counties over the period studied, roughly 2.5x to 3x. Mostly true: the finding exists, but the multiple applies to a narrower time window (e.g., since May 2021 or since vaccines became widely available) that the claim leaves out, or the figure is somewhat lower (around 2x to 2.5x). Mixed: the gap holds only in some comparisons or periods and is much smaller in others, so the overall framing is half right. Mostly false: a real but much smaller gap (under 2x), or a cumulative-period figure that does not support 'nearly three times'. False: analyses show no higher death rate, or a lower one, in heavily pro-Trump counties.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 Partisan Gap in Covid Deaths Growing Thanks to Right-Wing Vaccine Disinformation | Common Dreams Common Dreams · 9 November 2021

   “Last month in the United States, the per-capita rate at which people died of Covid-19 was more than three times higher in counties where former President Donald Trump won at least 60% of the vote compared with counties that President Joe Biden won by a similar margin”

2. E2 The Changing Political Geography of COVID-19 Over the Last Two Years Pew Research Center · 3 March 2022

   “During the fourth wave of the pandemic, death rates in the most pro-Trump counties were about four times what they were in the most pro-Biden counties.”

3. E3 The Changing Political Geography of COVID-19 Over the Last Two Years Pew Research Center · 3 March 2022

   “Overall, the COVID-19 death rate in all counties Trump won in 2020 is substantially higher than it is in counties Biden won (as of the end of February 2022, 326 per 100,000 in Trump counties and 258 per 100,000 in Biden counties).”

4. E4 The Changing Political Geography of COVID-19 Over the Last Two Years Pew Research Center · 3 March 2022

   “During this third wave – which continued into early 2021 – the coronavirus death rate among the 20% of Americans living in counties that supported Trump by the highest margins in 2020 was about 170% of the death rate among the one-in-five Americans living in counties that supported Biden by the largest margins.”

E1, published before the judging date, reports that in the previous month (October 2021) the per-capita COVID-19 death rate was more than three times higher in counties Trump won with at least 60% than in counties Biden won by a similar margin. E2 (Pew) reports a similar gap of about four times during the fourth wave, so the large multiple shows up in more than one analysis. These multiples hold only for recent periods, though. Over the whole pandemic, E3 gives 326 vs 258 deaths per 100,000 in all Trump vs Biden counties, and E4 puts the earlier third wave at about 1.7 times. Because the claim drops the time window, it fits the "mostly true" criterion.