In Thiel's assessment, Europe is extremely far behind in AI, although he said the situation is still fluid.

Judge as of 2026-09-25. True: the evidence then shows Europe far behind the US (and China) in AI on most major measures, e.g. a small share of notable frontier models, much lower private AI investment, compute and data-centre capacity, and few frontier labs (Stanford AI Index, Epoch AI, investment data). Mostly true: Europe clearly trails on most measures, but the gap is moderate on some (e.g. research output, talent, a competitive lab such as Mistral), so 'extremely' is a bit strong. Mixed: Europe trails on some key measures but is near parity on others. Mostly false: Europe is behind only modestly overall. False: Europe is at or near parity with, or ahead of, the leaders.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 The 2026 AI Index Report Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI)

   “U.S. private AI investment reached $285.9 billion in 2025, more than 23 times the $12.4 billion invested in China—though looking at just private investment figures likely understates China’s total AI spending, given its government guidance funds.”

2. E2 How can Europe address its pressing AI compute infrastructure shortfall? Bruegel · 10 September 2026

   “The European Union is running far behind the United States and China across the entire vertical artificial-intelligence stack, from chips and compute infrastructure1 to models and applications. In the model layer, the EU accounts for barely any of the more than 100 notable AI models, and has just one significant model developer: Mistral.”

3. E3 How can Europe address its pressing AI compute infrastructure shortfall? Bruegel · 10 September 2026

   “According to this data (see Table 1), the EU in 2026 has about 2 gigawatts of operational AI compute capacity, accounting for nearly 5 percent of global installed capacity. The US has nearly 18 times as much (35 gigawatts, or 78 percent of global capacity), while China has more than twice as much (5 gigawatts, or 11 percent).”

4. E4 State of AI Europe Prosus · 27 October 2026

   “Europe leads the world in AI adoption. It matches the United States in talent and in startups.”

Bruegel (E2) says the EU is running far behind the US and China across the whole AI stack. It also says the EU accounts for barely any of the more than 100 notable AI models and has one significant model developer, Mistral. Bruegel's compute data (E3) gives the EU about 2 GW of operational AI compute, nearly 5% of the global total, against 35 GW for the US and 5 GW for China. Prosus (E4), published shortly after the judging date, says Europe leads in AI adoption and matches the US in talent and startups. So Europe clearly trails on models and compute, while one later report (E4) says Europe leads on adoption and matches the US on talent, which makes "extremely" a bit strong under the criteria.