Nick Bostrom does meta-strategy work as well as object-level work on anthropic probabilities and the parliamentary model for normative uncertainty.

The claim has three parts, judged as of January 2013: by that date Nick Bostrom had done (a) meta-strategy or macrostrategy work, (b) object-level work on anthropic probabilities, and (c) object-level work on the parliamentary model for normative uncertainty. True: dated publications, talks or posts by Bostrom from before 2013-01-30 support all three. Mostly true: all three are supported, but one is only weakly attributed, for example as a co-author or because the work was mainly someone else's. Mixed: two of the three are supported. Mostly false: only one is supported. False: the evidence shows that Bostrom did not do such work on anthropics or on the parliamentary model before 2013.

Set before the research began.

1. E1 anthropic-principle.com anthropic-principle.com (Bostrom's site) Own record

   “This thesis develops a theory of how to reason when our evidence has been subjected to observational selection effects.”

2. E2 Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority existential-risk.com (hosting Bostrom's paper; journal listed as Global Policy) · 2012 Own record

   “(2012) Nick Bostrom”

3. E3 Nick Bostrom’s Home Page Nick Bostrom Own record

   “observation selection effects in cosmology and other contexts of self-locating belief, anthropic shadow, differential technological development, the unilateralist’s curse, the parliamentary model of decision-making under normative uncertainty”

4. E4 Papers — Future of Humanity Institute Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University · 1 January 2012 Own record

   “The Parliamentary Approach to Moral Uncertainty, Newberry, T. & Ord, T. #2021-2”

5. E5 Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority existential-risk.com (hosts Nick Bostrom's paper, published in Global Policy vol. 4, issue 1) · 2012 Own record

   “How we, from our current situation, might best achieve these ends is not obvious (figure 5). While we ultimately need more technology, insight, and coordination, it is not clear that the shortest path to the goal is the best one.”

6. E6 Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority existential-risk.com (hosts Nick Bostrom's paper, published in Global Policy vol. 4, issue 1) · 2012 Own record

   “the possibility of observation selection effects casting an "anthropic shadow" on available evidence (Cirkovic, Sandberg and Bostrom 2010).”

7. E7 Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority existential-risk.com (hosts Nick Bostrom's paper, published in Global Policy vol. 4, issue 1) · 2012 Own record

   “Exactly how one should take into account fundamental moral uncertainty is an open question, but that one should do so is clear (Bostrom 2009).”

8. E8 Moral uncertainty – towards a solution? Overcoming Bias · 1 January 2009

   “The Parliamentary Model. Suppose that you have a set of mutually exclusive moral theories, and that you assign each of these some probability.”

9. E9 Anthropic Principle Bibliography anthropic-principle.com · 1 January 2023

   “Bostrom, Nick, "Self-locating belief in big worlds: Cosmology's missing link to observation", Journal of Philosophy 99(12): 607-23, 2002”

10. E10 Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy Routledge · 17 June 2010

    “Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains.”

11. E11 Anthropic Principle Bibliography anthropic-principle.com · 1 January 2023

    “Bostrom, Nick, "Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards", Journal of Evolution and Technology, Vol. 9, 2002”

Macrostrategy work before 2013 is supported by Bostrom's 2012 'Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority' (E2, E5) and his 2002 paper on existential risks (E11). Anthropics work is supported by an independent bibliography listing his 2002 Journal of Philosophy paper on self-locating belief (E9). The publisher's page for the book Anthropic Bias (E10) also bears on it, though its quoted text does not name the author, and his own 2012 paper cites a 2010 co-authored work on 'anthropic shadow' (E6). The parliamentary model is supported less directly: a 2009 Overcoming Bias post presents 'The Parliamentary Model' for moral uncertainty but the quote does not name its author (E8), Bostrom's 2012 paper cites a 2009 Bostrom work on moral uncertainty (E7), and his undated homepage lists the model among his ideas (E3). With all three parts supported but the third only weakly attributed, the claim is mostly true.