Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%).
Mostly true True in substance, wrong in a detail.
Factual: Statements about the present or the past, checked against the record: did they hold up?
The second judge would not resolve this claim; the verdict shown is the first judge's.
What would count as true or false
Judged as of 2022-07-29. True if, between Powell's 27 July 2022 FOMC press conference (when the rate was raised to 2.25–2.50% and he described it as around neutral) and 29 July, major US stock indices (for example S&P 500, Nasdaq) rose substantially (about 1.5% or more cumulatively) and bond prices rallied (Treasury yields fell noticeably, for example 10-year down about 10 basis points or more). Mostly true if both rallied but one move was modest, or if the Powell remark was worded slightly differently from 'at neutral'. Mixed if only one of the stock and bond markets rallied substantially. Mostly false if moves were small or mixed. False if stocks and bonds fell over that period, or Powell made no such statement.
Set before the research began.
Evidence (3)
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E1 202207 U.S. Department of the Treasury · July 2022
“Date,"1 Mo","2 Mo","3 Mo","6 Mo","1 Yr","2 Yr","3 Yr","5 Yr","7 Yr","10 Yr","20 Yr","30 Yr" 07/29/2022,2.22,2.28,2.41,2.91,2.98,2.89,2.83,2.70,2.70,2.67,3.20,3.00 07/28/2022,2.20,2.30,2.42,2.90,2.93,2.85,2.81,2.69,2.69,2.68,3.23,3.02 07/27/2022,2.14,2.30,2.44,2.93,3.00,2.96,2.93,2.82,2.83,2.78,3.26,3.03”
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E2 Full recap of the Federal Reserve's rate hike and Powell's ... CNBC · 27 July 2022
“The S&P 500 was up about 1.3% shortly after the central bank announced its move. The Nasdaq Composite gained roughly 2.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 70 points.”
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E3 Partners in Financial Planning, LLC Partners in Financial Planning, LLC (Broadridge-prepared market summary) · 1 August 2022
“Interestingly, the market jumped higher after the latest interest-rate hike.”
Reasoning
Treasury data [E1] show the 10-year yield fell from 2.78% on 27 July 2022 to 2.67% on 29 July, an 11 basis point drop. The 2-year yield fell from 2.96% to 2.89%. That meets the bond-rally threshold. On stocks, CNBC [E3] reported the S&P 500 up about 1.3% and the Nasdaq up about 2.4% shortly after the Fed's announcement, and a monthly market summary [E4] says the market "jumped higher" after the rate hike. Neither source gives the cumulative stock gain through 29 July, and no quote confirms Powell's exact "neutral" wording, so the evidence supports a rally but not every detail of the criteria.
Cite this claim
Bill Ackman, “Bond and stock markets rallied substantially after Powell said on Wednesday that Fed rates were at neutral (2.25–2.5%).” (said 29 July 2022). Verdict: mostly true. Reliability API, claim c_021907f9efe7, method 0.1.0+c876030c, dataset release v1.1.2. https://epistacklabs.com/claims/c_021907f9efe7
This claim is in dataset release v1.1.2, with the same verdict.
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